SHORTLY before Gordon Brown took the podium to deliver his crucial address to the Labour conference, a protester with a megaphone stood across the road, shouting the bookies' odds on who would succeed him.
The man was campaigning for a better deal for pensioners, but knew the speculation over the leadership was a good way to grab the attention of delegates chatting in the Manchester sunshine.
A new poll today suggests a conference "bounce" with Labo
ur halving the Tory lead. But the speculation has not gone away – and may even intensify, following Ruth Kelly's shock resignation from the Cabinet yesterday.
The conference was dominated by the leadership issue from beginning to end. Cabinet colleagues went out of their way to heap praise on Mr Brown in their platform speeches and warned against defeatism, but there was a more questioning spirit abroad at many of the fringe meetings. And in private, candid conversations revealed the depth of disquiet at the heart of the party.
The fears about the dire position facing Labour were reinforced by a survey last weekend of marginal constituencies throughout the UK, which suggested the Tories could win the next election by a majority of 146 seats. In Scotland, a 14.5 per cent swing to the SNP could see Labour lose a host of seats including Edinburgh North & Leith, Edinburgh East, Midlothian and East Lothian.
The upcoming Glenrothes by-election may provide a crucial pointer as to whether Labour in Scotland can stop support haemorrhaging to the SNP.
But the most pessimistic of Mr Brown's internal critics believe the Prime Minister has become irredeemably unpopular with voters and that Labour has already lost the next election. They argue the choice now is to stick with him and lose by 150 seats, guaranteeing an extended spell in opposition, or change leader and lose by 50 seats, allowing a chance to return to power after one term.
Yesterday, the PM flew to New York and the United Nations to discuss the global economic crisis with praise for his conference speech still ringing in his ears, but few commentators were prepared to say much more than it was "enough for now".
The deadline for some sign of an upturn to save his premiership now seems to have been postponed until the European elections next June.
In his speech, Mr Brown acknowledged people's concerns about the economy and promised his government would be the "rock of stability and fairness" in uncertain times. He was also personal – "I didn't come into politics to be a celebrity; if people say I'm too serious, quite honestly there's a lot to be serious about" – and admitted the mistake of scrapping the 10p tax band.
Delegates were pleased with his attacks on the Tories for opposing the rescue of Northern Rock and the tightening of regulations on the City. "The Conservatives might have changed their tune, but they haven't changed their minds," he said.
However, his talk of "a new settlement for new times" fell a little flat when all he had to announce was a series of minor initiatives – free nursery places for two-year-olds, IT links for poorer children, health checks for over-40s – most of which will not apply in Scotland and some of which, like scrapping prescription charges for people with cancer or long-term conditions, do not go as far as the Scottish Government is already doing.
His critics say people worried about their fuel bills, jobs and homes might reasonably have hoped to hear something more radical to address their immediate concerns, like capping energy prices.
The conference heard calls for more radical action. Tony Woodley, joint general secretary of the biggest union Unite, urged re-nationalisation of gas and electricity, while former minister Michael Meacher proposed a "Robin Hood tax" on energy firms' profits.
Backbencher Jon Cruddas, who finished third in last year's deputy leadership contest, used fringe meetings to outline plans for a new 45p tax rate for those earning over £175,000 or £200,000.
There was a feeling that the global financial crisis, which produced the incredible spectacle of George Bush "nationalising the commanding heights of the US economy", had presented Mr Brown and his colleagues with an unexpected opportunity to bring forward bold initiatives to restore public confidence.
There was also a sense of frustration at the leadership's apparent failure to realise the urgency of the situation the party faces.
One seasoned conference-goer said: "When I arrived, I felt I'd come to a hospice where everyone had been told they had 18 months to live, but they were determined to be cheerful anyway." Another complained: "The conference operated as if the economy was fine and we were neck and neck with the Tories."
A polling expert told one fringe meeting that he estimated Labour's chances of an election victory at no more than ten per cent, but others argue there have been dramatic recoveries from dreadful poll ratings before.
None of Mr Brown's potential successors scored any major hits at the conference. Despite carefully placed features in weekend papers and a hectic round of fringe appearances, Foreign Secretary David Miliband, the man most often tipped to take over, got particularly bad reviews for his speech and was accused of telling aides he had toned it down to avoid a "Heseltine moment".
The Prime Minister may not have made "the speech of his life" but he has survived to fight another day.
The full article contains 914 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
