IT all seemed decided, accepted, almost predestined. The order of succession for the leadership of the Scottish Liberal Democrats had been clear for years.
When Jim Wallace decided to move on, the baton would pass to Nicol Stephen. And when Mr Stephen stepped down, Tavish Scott would inherit the mantle.
But now it has turned out not to be quite so simple.
After Mr Stephen announced last month that
he was quitting as leader to spend more time with his family, the heir apparent found he had two challengers for the job.
The independent-minded Mike Rumbles, who took almost a quarter of the votes when he stood against Mr Stephen in 2005, immediately threw his hat in the ring again. And a few days later, former rural affairs minister Ross Finnie took most people by surprise when he entered the race.
Mr Scott is still the favourite to emerge victorious when the votes of almost 3000 members are counted next week. But the contest has presented him with a tougher fight than he expected and allowed grassroots Lib Dems a more genuine choice.
Insiders say it is unlikely any of the candidates will get the 50 per cent of votes needed to win on the first count, which means the person with the fewest votes will drop out and his supporters' second preferences will prove crucial. The Finnie and Rumbles camps say there is still the possibility of a surprise outcome.
One source says: "If it had just been Mike against Tavish, it would have been the same result as last time – but Ross entering the race turned it into a real three-way competition."
Mr Scott's campaign message has been that the party must focus on the issues that concern the voters – like the economy and rising prices – rather than the Lib Dems' own pet subjects. He argues that with Labour in turmoil and the Tories "irrelevant" in Scotland, there are more votes up for grabs than ever before and the Lib Dems have to make sure they don't go to the SNP by default.
Mr Scott has the backing of former UK party leader Sir Menzies Campbell, ex-Scottish Lib Dem leader Lord (Jim) Wallace and a large chunk of the MSPs and Scottish MPs. But in a party famous for its rebellious instincts, being the establishment's choice is not always a help.
Sources say Mr Scott was less than pleased when he discovered Mr Finnie was standing against him. Mr Finnie is the Lib Dems' most senior ex-minister, having served in Cabinet for the full eight years of the Labour-Lib Dem coalition, and in the same post, where he won praise for his handling of Scotland's foot-and-mouth outbreak.
Mr Finnie's campaign theme has been the importance of traditional Liberal values of individual freedom and civil liberties.
Even before devolution, Mr Finnie – nicknamed Captain Mainwaring because he looks like the Dad's Army character – was a popular figure with activists, not least for his conference speeches.
And former Liberal leader and ex-Presiding Officer Sir David Steel has thrown his weight behind him.
His age – 61 – is not seen as counting against him, despite Sir Ming's experience, since none of the other party leaders at Holyrood are in the first flush of youth.
Mr Rumbles, who has made his reputation as a rebel inside the party, says he wants a definite change of direction in the party, giving the membership a bigger say on policy, and a "more robust" style of leadership.
He also wants maximum devolution within the UK, arguing for Scotland to be responsible for raising and spending taxes here, then sending a contribution to London to cover UK-wide functions such as defence and international relations.
Supporters say Mr Finnie has personally phoned 1300 party members during the campaign and has made clear his desire to listen to the grassroots. They say he will increase his vote on last time despite the greater competition.
The Lib Dems went into the Holyrood elections last year claiming they were poised to make gains, but ended up losing three of their constituency MSPs and going down from 17 seats to 16 overall.
And although Nicol Stephen was leader, Mr Scott as campaign manager cannot escape some of the blame for what was a fairly lacklustre performance.
The candidates have refrained from attacking each other during the contest. But Mr Rumbles told the hustings for party members held in Edinburgh earlier this month that he never again wanted to wake up on polling day to hear that the Lib Dems' main message was an extra hour of PE in school.
And in a more oblique criticism, Mr Finnie claims the party's message has become "blurred" and "lacks a distinctive Liberal Democrat edge".
There seems little dissent among Lib Dems about the decision to refuse the possibility of coalition with the SNP at Holyrood after last year's elections.
But whoever wins the current contest will want to lead a party that exercises some serious influence, whether in or out of power, both now and in the future.
And that means setting out clearly what the Lib Dems stand for at this point in Scotland's political development.
The full article contains 882 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
