Place your bets as the Tory leadership race begins in earnest – Ian Swanson

Ten candidates have made the cut – but there are more hurdles to navigate before we find out who will take over in Number Ten, says Ian Swanson
Michael Gove launches his Conservative Party leadership campaign in London. Picture: AFP/Getty ImagesMichael Gove launches his Conservative Party leadership campaign in London. Picture: AFP/Getty Images
Michael Gove launches his Conservative Party leadership campaign in London. Picture: AFP/Getty Images

THEY’RE off. After much parading around and intense discussion of the odds, the 2019 Tory leadership race is officially under way. Ten runners have set off but at least one will be eliminated as early as Thursday when MPs have their first round of voting.

Tory Party bosses decided on a last-minute change in the rules to try to thin out a crowded field. They set a threshold of eight MP supporters for candidates to achieve before they were allowed into the first round – two would-be contenders abandoned their efforts immediately and Sam Gyimah, the only candidate backing a second Brexit referendum, failed to make the cut when the names were announced. And instead of the candidate with the lowest votes being eliminated in each round, there will now be thresholds to meet at every stage.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

It’s not quite clear why such a change was needed – whatever happened to the Tories’ faith in market forces? Those failing to make much headway would have dropped out of their own volition quickly enough anyway.

Once MPs have whittled the list of hopefuls down to two, it will be time for the 160,000-strong Tory membership to have the final say.

But who is going to end up taking over the tenancy of Number Ten from Theresa May?

Boris Johnson is the clear favourite. But it says a lot when a candidate’s main strategy is to lie low and stay out of sight. The former leader of the Leave campaign and ex-Foreign Secretary has deliberately kept himself out of the media for the past few weeks to avoid committing gaffes and deterring potential supporters among MPs.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Mr Johnson has never been as popular among his Commons colleagues as he is is with Tory activists, so it used to be said his problem was whether he could win enough support from MPs to finish as one of the top two names which are forwarded.

But now pundits say MPs feel they cannot block the chances of someone who has such strong grassroots support and anyway his high profile and recognition factor could give the party its best chance in an election.

Until the weekend, the hot favourite to go head to head with Mr Johnson in the vote by party members was Michael Gove. But the Environment Secretary’s chances of progressing that far are now in doubt following the revelation of his cocaine taking 20 years ago – and, even more damagingly, the allegations of hypocrisy over a piece he wrote slating middle-class drug users around the same time.

Now the focus is switching more to Jeremy Hunt, who was already seen as the next most likely candidate to get to the final stage. The Foreign Secretary has won the backing of Remain supporter Amber Rudd whose support both Mr Johnson and Mr Gove had been hoping for as a way of broadening their appeal. And he also has the support of Brexiteer Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt who was tipped to make a bid of her own for the job.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Ruth Davidson has raised a few eyebrows by choosing to back Home Secretary Sajid Javid, despite his apparent readiness to settle for a no-deal Brexit if there is no prospect of an acceptable deal by the UK’s October 31 deadline for leaving. She says he embodies the party’s values of “aspiration, education, opportunity, hard work and just reward”.

But given the Tories’ terrible showing in the European elections and the Peterborough by-election it’s likely to be a while before the country as a whole is given the chance to pass a verdict on the new leader in a general election.