Ian Swanson: Ignore Scotland at your peril, Mrs May '“ say Tories

A HARD Brexit would cost Scots £2300 a head per year; a Canada-style deal would still leave everyone £1600 a year worse off; and even staying in the single market outside the EU would mean people were £688 a year poorer.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon with Europe Minister Michael RussellFirst Minister Nicola Sturgeon with Europe Minister Michael Russell
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon with Europe Minister Michael Russell

The Scottish Government’s analysis of the consequences of Brexit sets out the price of the 2016 Leave vote in stark terms.

Nicola Sturgeon said there is no good option for Scotland leaving the EU, but staying in the single market is the least damaging.

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The government paper, unveiled yesterday, also concludes Scotland needs continuing migration from the EU to support economic growth, pointing out each EU citizen working in Scotland currently contributes an average of £10,400 in tax revenue.

“For the sake of jobs, the economy and the next generation, we are calling on the UK Government to drop its hard Brexit red lines so that Scotland and the UK can stay inside the single market and customs union,” said the First Minister. The paper updates a document published by the Scottish Government in December 2016 which made the case for the whole of the UK – or failing that, Scotland alone – staying inside the single market.

That report was notable as the first detailed plan for the way forward ­following the surprise EU referendum result. This week’s document again represents a far more comprehensive study of what Brexit will mean than anything the UK Government has published – despite previous promises of impact studies.

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No-deal Brexit will cost Scotland £12.7bn a year, finds report

Ms Sturgeon described Theresa May’s failure to produce economic assessments on the effect of Brexit since she took office in 2016 as a ­“fundamental dereliction of duty”.

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It does seem astonishing that more than 18 months after the referendum – and in the face of all the boasts of what leaving the EU could mean – those in charge of Brexit have yet to spell out exactly what the impact will be.

Meanwhile, the UK Government has also failed to deliver on its promise of tabling amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill – to sort out the powers coming back from Brussels – before it leaves the Commons, meaning the issue will now be left to the House of Lords. The Scottish ­Government has said it cannot back the Withdrawal Bill as currently drafted and will not pass a legislative consent motion, giving Holyrood’s green light for it, without key changes.

Even Scottish Tories, both at ­Holyrood and Westminster, are ­dismayed at the delay in bringing ­forward the amendments.

Their constitution spokesman Adam Tomkins warned at the ­weekend about the danger of ­Westminster pressing on with the bill if there is no endorsement from north of the border.

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He said it was an important ­principle of the constitution that the UK parliament does not legislate on devolved issues without the Scottish Parliament’s agreement.

“Legislative consent is not a legal requirement for this legislation to be enacted by Westminster but it ­probably is a political requirement and the political price of enacting legislation without consent might be quite significant,” he said.

When a spokesman from Mrs May’s own party suggests it could be ­dangerous to ignore Scotland, it’s time for the prime minister to pay attention.