General election 2024: Seat-by-seat forecasts shows Labour winning most seats in Edinburgh and Lothians

Labour hopes of a clear general election victory on July 4 have been boosted by a  forecast suggesting it will win almost all the seats in Edinburgh and the Lothians.

The party currently holds just one of the nine Westminster seats in the area.  But a seat-by-seat prediction by Election Polling, based on a poll of polls and assuming a uniform swing across the country, claims Labour is now set to win eight of the nine.  

Labour's Ian Murray (Edinburgh South) and Douglas Alexander (East Lothian) are both predicted to win. Labour's Ian Murray (Edinburgh South) and Douglas Alexander (East Lothian) are both predicted to win.
Labour's Ian Murray (Edinburgh South) and Douglas Alexander (East Lothian) are both predicted to win.

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The Lib Dems would hold onto Edinburgh West. But the SNP - which currently holds the majority of Edinburgh and Lothian seats - would be left empty-handed.

The forecast, first published on May 12, does not take into account the appeal of individual candidates or other local factors. But it suggests Ian Murray, sitting Labour MP for Edinburgh South, will hold his seat with a massive 29,767 majority.

It predicts Labour will take back two former strongholds in the Capital, with the party's Chris Murray winning a 6,058 majority to oust the SNP's Tommy Sheppard in Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, and Labour's Tracy Gilbert defeating SNP MP Deidre Brock by 7,139 votes in Edinburgh North & Leith.

Lib Dem Christine Jardine is forecast to be re-elected in Edinburgh West with a 4,913 majority and Labour in second place. 

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If the predictions are correct, Labour former Cabinet minister Douglas Alexander will return to the Commons by winning a comfortable 15,662 majority in East Lothian, where Kenny MacAskill won the seat for the SNP in 2019 before he defected to Alex Salmond's Alba party. 

Labour is also predicted to win Midlothian, with Kirsty McNeill defeating SNP MP Owen Thompson by 10,966 votes.

And according to the forecasts, Labour will win both the West Lothian seats, Gregor Poyton ousting SNP MP Hannah Bardell in Livingston by a 4,357 majority and Kirsteen Sullivan winning the new Bathgate & Linlithgow seat, defeating SNP MP Martyn Day by 4,673 votes. 

Ian Murray said Labour was “quietly optimistic but not complacent”. He said: “We’re fighting for every vote - we’ve got our candidates and activists across Edinburgh and the Lothians out every single day of the week, taking our message to the doorsteps and we’ll see what happens.

“Polls are a just a snapshot, but we’re quietly confident we could have a good election night if we continue to work hard and speak to the public.”

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