Holyrood elections 2026: Final projections forecast big win for Greens in Edinburgh and Lothians
Counting gets under way - results expected around teatime
Greens could win two Edinburgh constituencies and also three list seats, according to the very last seat-by-seat projection of Scottish Parliament election results.
Counting of the votes in the Capital is getting under way at the Royal Highland Centre at Ingliston today, with results expected by around teatime.
But polling organisation the Diffley Partnership yesterday produced a final seat projection based on the last five polls of the campaign by YouGov, Ipsos, Norstat, Survation and More in Common.
Nationally, it showed the SNP with 56 seats, nine short of an overall majority, Reform in second place with 19 seats, Labour third with 18, the Greens fourth with 16, followed by the Conservatives with 11 and the Lib Dems with nine.
In Edinburgh and the Lothians, the Greens were projected to win both Edinburgh Central - their target seat - and Edinburgh North Eastern & Leith, with former Green minister Lorna Slater defeating Culture Secretary Angus Robertson and the Greens' Kate Nevens beating SNP minister Ben Macpherson.
According to the projections, the Lib Dems' Sanne Dijkstra-Downie would win the new Edinburgh Northern seat, while Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton held onto Edinburgh North Western.
Labour would win the redrawn East Lothian Coast & Lammermuirs - Martin Whitfield ousting the SNP's Paul McLennan - as well as holding Edinburgh Southern.
And the SNP would hold Edinburgh South Western, the redrawn Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh & Tranent and Midlothian North, as well as Almond Valley, the new Bathgate seat, Falkirk East & Linlithgow and Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale.
But the biggest surprise was the projection for the Edinburgh & Lothians East regional list, where the Greens were forecast to take three seats in addition to their two constituency victories. The Conservatives would retain two of the three they won last time, Labour would have one and Reform one.
In Central Scotland and Lothians West region, Labour was projected to win three list seats, Reform two, the Tories one and the Greens one.
Greens welcomed the projected Green victory in Edinburgh Central as confirmation of their own hopes. An Edinburgh Green source said the results from the party's polling day door knocking in the constituency to get people to vote were "incredibly encouraging". "We were getting a warmer response than we've ever had and the numbers are looking pretty impressive."
The source was more cautious about Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith, but indicated reasons for optimism. "We've always said Central was our most likely prospect, but North Eastern and Leith has always been a very strong Green area. Leith Walk ward is probably the Greenest ward in Scotland, so we should get a very strong Green vote there and potentially a surprise in the seat as a whole."
One explanation for the Greens' projected list success could be SNP voters backing Greens on the list to maximise the number of pro-independence MSPs. Mark Diffley of the Diffley Partnership said: "The Greens have had a really big uptick in the last four or five polls. I think there's quite a lot of tactical voting. The SNP's regional vote share has really fallen off a cliff."
He said the third list seat for the Greens was won only narrowly in the projection. And he said the relative lack of Reform support in Edinburgh meant it was slightly easier for other parties to get list seats here than elsewhere.
Meanwhile a Labour source pointed out the Survation poll on Wednesday forecast that Labour would win both Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh & Tranent.
"We think we will do better nationally than the polls suggest and definitely come second ahead of Reform. There has been a movement towards us that is not reflected in the polls. And there will be local results which are based on the quality of the organisation and perhaps the candidate."
The source said Edinburgh Central was "on a knife edge" and Edinburgh Eastern "looking good".