It's a high stakes by-election in Makerfield: no-one has seen anything like it
Andy Burnham’s by-election bid to return to Westminster is a gamble
Next week's by-election in the Greater Manchester constituency of Makerfield has been described as the most important in British history.
When by-elections hit the headlines it's usually because of a spectacular victory for an opposition party in a previously safe seat held by the governing party.
But the stakes in Makerfield are much higher. The result is likely to decide the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer just two years after he won a landslide general election victory.
If Labour candidate Andy Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, wins what is a closely fought contest with Nigel Farage's Reform party, he could challenge Keir Starmer and secure the keys to Number 10, possibly without anyone else entering the race.
If he loses the by-election, Keir Starmer may survive despite all the weeks of speculation about his departure. As Donald Trump likes to say, no-one has seen anything like it.
In 1963, Conservative Alec Douglas-Home also had to win a by-election in order to be Prime Minister. But the circumstances were very different.
Harold Macmillan had decided of his own accord to leave Downing Street on health grounds, and Home was chosen to replace him. But he was in the House of Lords and had to disclaim his peerage and get elected as an MP because, although constitutionally allowed, it was not seen as acceptable for Prime Ministers to be in the Lords.
A by-election was already pending in the safe Tory seat of Kinross and West Perthshire and the Conservative candidate George Younger - later Scottish Secretary and Defence Secretary under Margaret Thatcher - stood down to make way for the new PM, who went on to win by a comfortable majority.
Another case to consider is that of Labour's Patrick Gordon Walker, who was appointed Foreign Secretary after Harold Wilson ended 13 years of Tory rule by winning the 1964 general election.
The only problem was that Mr Gordon Walker had lost his seat after an ugly Tory campaign over immigration. So for three months the Foreign Office was led by someone who was not even in parliament.
A by-election was quickly arranged in the London constituency of Leyton, which had been a safe seat, but Mr Gordon Walker lost by 205 votes and could not continue as Foreign Secretary.
No-one can take anything for granted when it comes to elections. The voters of Makerfield will decide.