2025 will be election-free year, but all eyes already on 2026 Holyrood contest

After Labour secured its massive majority at Westminster in last year's general election, pundits will be watching the English local elections this May to gauge how the parties are doing.

But north of the border, eyes are already firmly focused on 2026 and the next Scottish Parliament elections.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar delivers his first speech of the New Year at Glasgow University on Monday January 6, 2025. Picture: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire | PA

Labour's impressive general election performance in Scotland - upping their numbers from two to 37 - prompted predictions that they would also emerge as the largest party at Holyrood, something last seen in the 2003 Scottish Parliament election.

But the last six months have seen Labour's poll ratings tumble and the party now faces a big challenge if it is to win next year.

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said that after winning 35 per cent of the votes at the election on July 4, Scottish Labour is now back roughly where it was at the 2021 Holyrood elections, with polls giving it around 22 per cent in the constituency vote and 20 per cent on the regional list.

The dramatic drop in support reflects the unpopularity of some of the new UK Labour government's early decisions, such as the means-testing of pensioners' winter fuel payment, the failure to scrap the two-child benefit cap and not paying compensation to the Waspi women.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has taken a different line on all three of these issues. But distancing itself from Labour's policies at Westminster is unlikely to be enough to restore the Scottish party's poll lead.

Mr Sarwar will want the election on May 7 next year to be a verdict on the SNP's 18 years in office. And he made that clear in his first speech of the New Year on Monday, lambasting the Scottish Government's record on issues like health, education and housing and promising Labour would do better.

It’s early yet for Labour to be making manifesto pledges for the Scottish Parliament elections, but nearer the time it will need to spell out a clear set of concrete policy proposals for the “new direction” Mr Sarwar was promising if it is going to have a chance of winning.

And some slightly more popular policies from Westminster colleagues would help too.