2024 gets off to a bad start for Rishi Sunak as Tories face another by-election which Labour could win

Prime minister can’t escape Conservative party divisions at start of general election year

The new year has not got off to a good start for Rishi Sunak.

Just five days into 2024, former Tory energy minister Chris Skidmore announced he was resigning the party whip and standing down as an MP as soon as possible in protest at the Government's policy of issuing more oil and gas licences for the North Sea. Mr Skidmore, a leading green voice in the Conservative party, accused the prime minister of rowing back on climate commitments.

Mr Skidmore's decision to quit is another blow for the already beleaguered Mr Sunak at the start of what is expected to be a general election year. It will mean a by-election in Kingswood, near Bristol, a seat which had an 11,000 Tory majority at the last election and which has previously voted Labour.

Rishi Sunak is facing yet another by-election following the resignation of former Tory energy minister Chris Skidmore over the issuing of new oil and gas licences. Picture: Christopher Furlong/PA Wire

Another by-election is the last thing the Tories need right now. Of the five by-elections in previously Tory-held seats in the past six months, the party has retained only one; Labour took three of them with swings of up to 46 per cent; and the Lib Dems won the other.

There's a by-election already pending in Tory-held Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, where the MP Peter Bone was suspended from parliament over bullying and sexual misconduct. The local party has chosen Mr Bone's partner as its candidate to replace him. The majority in 2019 was over 18,000 – but Labour’s three by-election victories – at Tamworth, Mid-Bedfordshire and Selby & Ainsty – were all in seats with bigger majorities than that.

And there could also be a third by-election since Blackpool South Tory MP Scott Benton is facing a Commons suspension for a "very serious breach" of standards rules. The Conservative majority there is less than 4,000.

Mr Sunak may have been hoping for a chance to set the agenda as he prepares for the general election. In a weekend interview with a supportive newspaper he talked up the prospect of tax cuts and cutting the benefits budget.

But he can't escape the conflicts in his own party and the legacy of his predecessors. As well as the concerns over climate commitments, even the hard-line Rwanda policy, trying to deport asylum-seekers to East Africa, which the Tories obviously hoped would be a vote-winner, is proving a cause of division, with some right-wingers arguing the latest legislation to stop courts ruling against it does not go far enough.

Meanwhile Keir Starmer is refusing to be complacent despite Labour’s poll lead, and is taking a cautious approach to give the Tories as little scope for attack as possible, while also seeking to offer hope to a “downtrodden country”. Some in the party argue his approach is too cautious and the size of the poll gives him an opportunity to be bolder on policy. But the leader knows there are a host of potential hazards ahead and opponents just waiting for an opportunity to ambush the party on the way to the polls: he does not want to risk defeat.

Mr Sunak says his “working assumption” is there will be an election in the second half of this year, but he can still opt for any date of his choice between now and January 2025. But at the moment it looks as if whatever day he chooses, the result will be the same.