Covid: Did SNP ministers foresee a rise in cases or did a chance spike bail them out? – Steve Cardownie

No sooner do we herald the rolling out of a vaccine to combat the effects of Covid-19 than we are informed that a new strain of the disease has been discovered that may spread more rapidly than the one that we have been accustomed to.

Nicola Sturgeon warned relaxing the restrictions in Edinburgh would be like 'throwing petrol on smouldering embers' (Picture: Scottish government)

Although there is no evidence that this new strain is any more potent, its discovery is casting a shadow over the wisdom of easing some of the current restrictions over Christmas.

Although some scientists have doubted the wisdom of the five-day break from the outset, this new strain is likely to add some considerable weight to their argument that any easing of the restrictions is fraught with danger and will, in all likelihood, exact a heavy price in the months that follow.

It was not that long ago that there was a body of opposition to a national response being adopted to deal with the rise in Covid-19 cases, advocating a local response instead – why should areas with a lower incidence of infection rates suffer the same lockdown strictures that those with higher rates have to adhere to?

The government then introduced a tiered structure of regulations tailored to suit the circumstances of individual regions, only to find that in itself also generated a great deal of controversy. Is this inevitable or can it be largely avoided?

Take Edinburgh’s case for example. Last Monday this paper reported that “the directors of Public Health Scotland are believed to have advised the Scottish government that the capital has met all of the criteria for being moved down to level two, from the current level-three restrictions” going on to add, “ultimately the decision is down to ministers...”

The subsequent decision by ministers to leave Edinburgh in tier three led to the City Council Leader and Deputy Leader tabling a motion at last week’s full council meeting pushing for a reversal of that decision and for tier-two restrictions to apply.

Now to this week. Nicola Sturgeon was quoted in yesterday’s paper, when responding to a spike in city cases of Covid-19 over the past week, that any easing of the restrictions would have been like “throwing petrol on smouldering embers”.

She asserts that ministers were aware that numbers were “edging up” and that the data since last Tuesday vindicates her position stating: “If I look at the data since last Tuesday then I have to conclude that the decision we took last Tuesday not to take Edinburgh down a level was the right one. I look at the most recent data, and it says that in the seven-day period cases in Edinburgh increased by 33 per cent. Test positivity is now almost five per cent again.”

Was the scientific advice restricted to the then current figures or did it also predict that a spike in cases was imminent? If so, was this transmitted to council leaders? If not, why not? If it was, why did they react as they did? Was the rise in cases foreseen only by ministers or did the spike fortuitously bail them out?

Hopefully, the vaccination programme will negate the need for such decisions to be made in the not-too-distant future but in the meantime we need as much clarity as possible.

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