Donald Anderson: Hands up, we got the figures all wrong on Trams – thankfully!

When we launched the Tram proposals all those years ago, we put together a business case that critics said was unrealistic and full of holes. They said our figures were wrong about how many people would use the Trams in years to come.

As of June 2023 trams have returned to Leith Walk for the first time since 1956

And now I must confess they were right. At the time of the Trams being promoted, the business case forecast predicted that there would be 8.4 million passenger journeys a year.

Those figures were way off pitch. It’s taken a long time for the figure to emerge because, of course, the project was delivered with breathtaking incompetence and the line only reached Newhaven in 2023, when the astonishingly well delivered ‘extension’ was finally open.

So, 8.4 million passengers were predicted and the figures for 2024 after the Leith spur opened were 12.2 million. Yup, that’s right, there were nearly 50 per cent more passengers on the Trams than we estimated and that’s not all.

In terms of public transport some remarkable things have been achieved. The Tram plays an amazing role in handling those busy periods when the city has a lot of visitors.

During the three nights when Murrayfield stadium hosted Taylor Swift and Oasis, the Trams shifted tens of thousands of concert goers efficiently, and the Tram had its busiest ever day when Taylor Swift was on, carrying 74,500 passengers.

The big difference has been the addition of the Leith spur. When that opened in 2023, passenger numbers grew from a Covid depressed 5.3 million to an astonishing 10.1 million in a single year. A year later numbers hit 12 million.

It took a brave council to implement that Tram extension to Leith. I wasn’t involved, but everyone who was should take a bow, it’s been a triumph.

And there’s more. One of the prediction we made was that Trams would also boost investment in the city. Trams have actually turbo charged the city economy.

Despite the crash of 2008 the city economy has doubled since 2007, up from around £17 billion in value to over £36 billion today.

If you adjust that for inflation, the growth figure is about 35-45 per cent compared to Scottish growth of around 15-20 per cent (a figure that would be significantly lower without the growth Trams helped Edinburgh achieve), and a UK economy that’s grown by 25-30 per cent.

Edinburgh’s GDP per capita for the first time is higher than London’s at £69,809, compared to Scotland’s, which is between £37,200 and £39,700 depending on whether you count oil.

And the good news doesn’t end there. The physical regeneration of the city tracked right back to the Edinburgh St James development which was an investment predicated by being at the centre of a tramline, runs in the billions.

A conservative estimate of the developments either brought forward in light of the Tram development or that has seen development accelerated, is in the region of £8 billion and is probably more like over £10 billion.

At the same time our high street has been saved as Edinburgh ‘Leads the UK in high street footfall’, and Princes Street’s being completely renewed.

I’m sorry, there I said it. I don’t know how we got it so wrong.