Edinburgh's state schools are overflowing with pupils (and VAT on private school fees will make that worse) – John McLellan

As the finishing touches are put to Boroughmuir High’s extension, the addition needed because the new school was too small the day it opened, pupils, parents and staff could be forgiven for looking forward to more breathing space.

Sadly, a report on future school rolls to today’s Edinburgh Council education committee forecasts it will again be over-capacity by 2026 and increasingly so until 2028 after which a slight decline is anticipated. James Gillespie’s will be over-capacity until 2029, and no slack is expected at Firhill, one of 14 Edinburgh high schools set to remain beyond full for the foreseeable future.

The secondary roll rocketed 23 per cent to 22,322 pupils in 2016-2021 and could peak as early as 2025-26, but any decline will be slow because of the number of new housing developments and could still be 24,742 in 2032. The report estimates that adding the necessary capacity could cost over £100 million.

Many new homes are on sites in built-up areas where popular schools are already under pressure, and even with some new school buildings in the pipeline, adjusting the catchment areas could be unavoidable, always a politically explosive exercise. Right across Viewforth from Boroughmuir, plans are being finalised for 464 flats, 97 of them with three bedrooms, so it’s possible its projections are an underestimate.

Boroughmuir High School was already too small on the day that it opened (Picture: Greg Macvean)

And today’s report does not address Labour’s threat to impose VAT on private school fees if it wins next year’s general election, a 20 per cent hike likely to increase demand at already over-subscribed schools. Boroughmuir might need another annexe.