House prices set to soar in Scotland (if Brexit doesn’t go wrong) – Helen Martin

Rising house prices may be good news for owners, but there are some considerable downsides too, writes Helen Martin.

Monday, 18th November 2019, 11:40 am
House prices are forecast to soar in Scotland - but there's a catch. Picture: Jane Barlow
House prices are forecast to soar in Scotland - but there's a catch. Picture: Jane Barlow

ESTATE agents Savills, one of the biggest in Britain, has produced a report saying that if Brexit goes ahead, house prices in Scotland will rise by a much higher percentage than those in the rest of the UK.

Apparently, this won’t happen suddenly, but over the next five years once everyone has calmed down, or as they put it, once “Brexit and election-related angst subsides”. In Scotland overall, that amounts to a 20 per cent increase as opposed to 15 per cent for the UK. But in both, it’s an average. Some places and areas may have a minimal increase, others may soar. And we know, Edinburgh is likely to be at the high point.

That’s good for current owners, but disastrous for first-time buyers who are not even one rung up on the ladder.

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If that really is the case Scotland is certainly going to have to have a huge pot of funds to rapidly increase affordable housing.

If prices really do rise so much, private rentals will have to go up too in order to make some profit but also to cover the mortgage and landlord costs.

Homeless numbers could rise and therefore so would the costs of local authorities to provide housing benefits and find accommodation sources. It’s not such good news after all.

The Savills theory is that “in Scotland the key fundamentals – quality of life, good schools and economic growth in the hubs of Edinburgh and Glasgow will drive local markets”.

However (and here’s the punchline) it’s all based on the belief that the UK gets an orderly Brexit deal from the EU and avoids recession!