Labour conference speech a key test for Sir Keir Starmer after Rutherglen victory and an encouraging poll - Ian Swanson

Labour gathering in Liverpool could be last before party returns to power

There is a stark contrast between last week's Tory conference in Manchester and this week's Labour gathering in Liverpool.

The Tories' proceedings were completely overshadowed by the anticipation of Rishi Sunak's announcement in his closing speech that he was scrapping the high-speed rail line to the very city where they were meeting and instead spending the money on a hotch-potch of lesser transport projects which had been hanging around for a while, some of them already cancelled, revived and cancelled again. A sceptical public is left wondering why they should believe it this time.

He also used his speech to announce the scrapping of A-levels and an incremental ban on smoking, but both policies will take a long time to bring in and there's probably just a year to go until the next general election. So despite the ambitious-sounding declarations, the chances are neither will happen.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer shares a joke with shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool. Picture: Peter Byrne/PA Wire.

For Mr Sunak, Manchester was probably his last conference as prime minister and Tory leader. He leads a party many of whose MPs and members don’t believe they can win the next general election. Leading Tory figures treated the conference as a platform for their leadership pitches. And after 13 years of Conservative government, few voters are going to be taken in by Mr Sunak’s claim to represent change.

Meanwhile, if the polls are right, Liverpool looks like being Labour's last conference before Sir Keir Starmer is elected PM and the party returns to power. Hot on the heels of a spectacular victory in the Rutherglen by-election, the conference is Sir Keir's opportunity to spell out to voters fed up with 13 years of Tory rule how Labour will make a difference to their lives.

In contrast to an outgoing prime minister breezily announcing policies which he is never likely to get the chance to put into practice, Sir Keir will be talking about the priorities for a new government which he knows will be scrutinised mercilessly ahead of the election and which – if Labour does win – he will then be held to account for.

A new opinion poll, reported at the weekend, claimed Labour was in line for a 1997-scale landslide, winning 420 seats, including all 44 “red wall” seats lost to the Tories last time. The Tories would get 149 seats and the Lib Dems 23, giving Labour an overall majority of 190. The poll also found the cost of living and the state of the NHS were voters’ top priorities.

Despite the Rutherglen result and that poll, Sir Keir and his colleagues are determined there will be no complacency in the Labour camp. They know how quickly politics can change and how easily apparently sizeable leads can be whittled away. No-one thinks the by-election result is a direct predictor of the general election outcome, but it does reinforce Labour's credibility with the public and its position as an alternative government.

Reassurance and hope are Sir Keir’s themes for the conference. Some in the party think he is being too cautious and the party needs to be bolder to inspire voters. His own speech to the conference will be an important test for himself and for the party.