New year optimism over Covid proved premature but there are still signs of hope - Ian Swanson

Everyone was glad to say goodbye to 2020. The end of the year when Covid burst upon us, stopping us from seeing our friends, going out for a meal or a drink and going on holiday looked like a turning point. With vaccines about to be rolled out, the new year offered the prospect of finally escaping from the lockdowns and restrictions.

The vaccine may not be a silver bullet, but it is still the way out of all this

But if ever we needed a reminder there is no magic in crossing that threshold between December 31 and January 1 we've had it now.

Just a few weeks into 2021 it is clear that the coronavirus which dominated and disrupted our lives over most of the last year is not disappearing anytime soon.

Hospitals in many parts of the country are struggling to cope with more Covid cases than during the first wave; schools are closed again with no certainty when they are likely to reopen; and most shops and hospitality businesses are shut too.

And now we have the new UK Covid variant – labelled abroad as “the British mutation" – which not only spreads more easily but may also have a higher death rate. Thankfully it seems the vaccine is still effective against it. But other new variants in Brazil and South Africa are reported to be more resistant.

Northern Ireland has already extended its lockdown until March and no-one in government is willing to put a date on how soon we can expect a return to anything like normality.

The Edinburgh festivals, which were forced to cancel last year, say they are pressing ahead with plans for this summer, but that could still change. Nicola Sturgeon has said there is no guarantee life will be back to normal by the summer and we could be living with physical distancing, face coverings and travel restrictions for some time to come.

And one of the most telling signals of the seriousness of the situation is Boris Johnson. The prime minister has adopted a new tone of caution in his pronouncements. We've not heard much recently about sending the virus packing or wrestling it to the ground. Where he once thought Covid could be overcome in 12 weeks or normality restored by Christmas, he now mostly resists invitations to set timetables or deadlines.

Maybe there is now some tacit recognition of the serious mistakes which have been made in the handling of the crisis, not least the failure to impose border controls right at the start. These are now being introduced in a bid to stop new variants being imported from abroad, but earlier restrictions might have prevented the previous spread and saved many lives.

But there are signs of hope – Scotland has lowest rate of infections per 100,000 in the UK, hospital admissions now seem to be coming down and the vaccine roll out is under way.

Experts are now keen to emphasise the vaccine is not a silver bullet which will change everything overnight. Once people are vaccinated they still need to stick to the rules because they could still spread it to other people. But the vaccine is still what offers us a way out of all this. The crucial thing will be not to make the mistake of lifting restrictions too soon.

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