Political and economic upheaval on horizon - Alex Cole-Hamilton
I’m getting better at this. Not writing, that’s for you to judge, no I mean I’m getting better at predicting the future in this, my annual attempt to foretell what the New Year has in store for us.
Looking back on last year’s effort, I think my predictions were all pretty soundly reasoned out, and in some cases were on the obvious side, nevertheless all but a couple came to pass.
Trump didn’t deliver peace in Ukraine and he doesn’t really speak to Elon Musk anymore. While Musk himself has largely grown bored with politics. The economy remains stagnant and the Lib Dems cleaned up in the English local elections, beating both Labour and the Conservatives.
I went out on a limb and suggested that a Conservative parliamentarian would defect to the Lib Dems. That came to pass in April when Jamie Greene MSP spectacularly left the Tories to join us. I promise you, I had no idea about that at the time of writing, but Jamie’s move speaks to a wider shift of people who backed the party under Ruth Davidson and are now horrified by the Conservatives' race to the right.
So as Old Father Time ushers in 2026, here is what I think he has in store for us:
1: Scotland will make it out of the group stage of the World Cup. I make no bolder prediction than that, but we can live in hope.
2: The SNP will underperform on expectations at the Scottish Parliament elections and what looked certain to be a fifth term in office will come into question. The make-up of Holyrood will be fragmented like never before.
3: The Scottish Liberal Democrats will repeat what happened at the general election in 2024 and overtake the Scottish Conservatives in the Scottish Parliament.
4: Russell Findlay will not be leader of the Scottish Tories after the Summer; he may not even be an MSP.
5: While I think Scottish Labour are underpriced at the moment, Labour’s performance in the English local and Welsh elections will be so dire that Keir Starmer will be compelled to resign the office of Prime Minister. He will be replaced by Wes Streeting.
6: Andy Burnham will return to the UK parliament following a by-election, but he won’t be there in time to run for the Labour leadership on this occasion.
7: The AI bubble will burst- leading to a global economic shock, not on the scale of the dot-com crash, but it will hurt.
8: A fragile peace will emerge in Ukraine roughly on the current lines of contact, backed by security guarantees from the US and Europe. It won’t last and those security guarantees will be tested.
9: The impact of the AI crash on the economy and the continuing affordability crisis will see the Republicans hammered at the US mid-term elections.
So, there you have it. Emboldened by the strength of my predictions last year I’ve stuck my neck out with these, so don’t bet the house on any of them, it’s just a bit of fun. Whatever 2026 brings us I hope it’s a good one for you and those you love. Lang may yer lum reek.