Rachel Reeves needs a positive vibe for next week's painful Budget - Ian Swanson

Chancellor Rachel Reeves at the recent Labour Party conference in Liverpool. Picture: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

Rachel Reeves' package of measures to be unveiled next week has been labelled “a milestone”, “massive”, “the most significant moment since the election”, “setting the course for the rest of the parliament” and a "make or break event".

Indeed, it is so highly anticipated that the occasion is now at serious risk of being an anti-climax. Both the Chancellor and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have made clear it is going to be painful and involve tough choices, with an inevitable rise in taxes. And they say that’s mostly down to the mess the Conservatives left.

According to Labour, it was not only in their election manifesto that the Tories made big promises without saying where the money would come from, it was how they operated in government as well.

Although a degree of mystery is still preserved around Budgets until they are delivered, some elements of the October 30 package seem clear: up to £40 billion of tax increases and spending cuts, including an increase in employers' national insurance contributions, changes to inheritance tax and capital gains tax and potentially an end to the freeze on fuel duty; a tweaking of the fiscal rules to allow more investment in infrastructure projects; and more money for the NHS.

It may not prove popular with either Labour supporters hoping for a bigger boost to public spending or the better-off who will complain about the tax rises. But the government is convinced such action is essential to get growth back into the economy - and also knows this is the time when it can afford to be unpopular, with a general election a long way away.

Ms Reeves set a sombre tone on the economic situation with her statement in July, which included the announcement on means-testing pensioners’ winter fuel payments. Sir Keir reinforced the mood by warning things would get worse before they got better.

But the positive news is that for business and investors, the UK is now more economically stable than it has been for years - and more stable than many other countries - because it has a government with a large majority and five years to run.

Labour’s first months in office have not been smooth, but the government has a plan and next Wednesday’s Budget will be a key part of that. Ms Reeves needs to accompany her tough choices with a positive vibe, setting out not just the costs involved but the major opportunities and rewards to come when the painful measures do their work.