School absentee problem is a growing concern in the Capital - John McLellan

Rising school absence rates are causing concern in Edinburgh

But rising numbers of parents who can no longer afford to keep their children in private education, combined with those who will not now consider it in the first place, is not an illusion, even if takes longer than a Big Bang rush of demand in August.

It is, however, a fantasy that Edinburgh’s most popular state secondaries have suddenly been able to magic up capacity, so that schools which were well over-subscribed last year have now found so much extra room that pupils must be rattling round like peas on a drum.

So how will rising numbers not affect the ratio of teachers? It depends on whether you use the official figures, roughly based on the enrolment figure divided by the teaching staff establishment, or the unofficial figure based on the number of kids who actually turn up.

New information uncovered by the Scottish Conservatives reveals that 3217 primary and secondary school pupils were absent from school for more than half of the year in 2023/24, and 14.4 per cent (4548) of primary school pupils and 16.5 per cent (3833) of secondary school pupils missed more than ten per cent of their classes.

So, at a rough estimate, that means there are about 1200 unfilled seats in the city’s secondary schools every year, which represents five per cent of the 23,150 total roll. So, in theory there is more notional capacity than it seems.

Of course I am being flippant, not least because a significant number of those absentees will not serve catchment areas where the demand from private sector refugees will be greatest, and of course the council must plan on the basis that pupils will show up when expected.

But the serious point is that far too many children are leaving Edinburgh schools without the skills and knowledge necessary to help them lead productive lives when they officially leave school, and in those figures lies the root of the epidemic of worklessness which is blighting the economy and saddling taxpayers with entirely avoidable costs.

Across Scotland, latest official figures showed 22.5 per cent of people aged 16 to 64 years were economically inactive; some retired, some carers, some medically incapable, but in that figure is an army of people who could be out working but find reason not to. ADHD, anxiety and a host of modern mental health diagnoses are recognised as contributory factors.

Perhaps because of its relatively strong and stable white-collar economy, Edinburgh fares much better, but with an inactivity rate of 14.2 per cent, that’s still around 50,000 people not available for work at a time when employers consistently report the damaging effect of labour shortages.

The situation has improved considerably from two years ago when the figure was up to around 70,000 people, possibly a hangover from lockdown, but many of those who have opted out of work also opted out of school, so there is an economic as well as social imperative to toughen up on truancy.

A forthcoming Scottish Government marketing campaign is all well and good, but there also needs to be consequences for persistent non-attendance and that comes down to parental responsibility.