Scottish independence: A perfect storm now threatens the Union – Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP

As support for Scottish independence nudges higher, Nicola Sturgeon is having a party. And what do the Tories do? Send in Boris the Clown, writes Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP

Nicola Sturgeon has a coffee in Cafe Gelato, Rutherglen, ahead of last year's general election. (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire)

Listen very carefully, that sound you hear is the sound of tens of thousands of your fellow Scots resolutely not clapping to mark the occasion of my birthday, which happens to be today. Until the weekend’s coverage of the celebrations around the First Minister’s 50th – including eight pages (!) of happy birthday tributes in the National and the “clap for Nicola” at 8pm on Sunday night, I had no idea that our birthdays were so close or that our country is so worryingly absorbed in the cult of personality.

It’s easy to buy for a 43-year-old father-of-three. This year I got sunglasses and a family zoo membership, but what do you get for the leader who has it all to mark a big birthday? Why, a stonkingly big electoral victory and the break-up of a union six times her senior of course! She must think that both are in range right now.

The coronavirus emergency has given the SNP an undeserved perception of competence, when before they were struggling on most domestic policy areas. It has allowed them to junk all their unpopular and unworkable policy commitments. It has insulated them from any future attack on their woeful record on educational attainment and the health service and it has offered the First Minister a podium where she has spoken day in, day out, unencumbered by opposition voices.

Yet they seem to escape criticism for the fact we have the second-highest Covid mortality rate in the four home nations and one of the highest in the world. With support nudging upwards for independence, it’s starting to feel like the Union is facing a perfect storm. All of the pro-UK opposition parties need to get our acts together if we are to apply the airbrakes to the seemingly unstoppable train of SNP success. Yet the official opposition to the Government are in total disarray.

The Conservatives seem to be in free fall in Scottish opinion polls and the announcement this weekend by Tory MSP Adam Tomkins that he intends to stand down at the elections next spring is bad news for the blues. It’s also bad news for the Union. Adam has been a formidable opponent in Holyrood. He has one of the most acute constitutional brains in the country and his is an important voice that will be sorely missed in the chamber and in the political skirmishes around independence that lie ahead.

His announcement coincides with the resignation of Tory spin chief, Eddie Barnes. Both were hand picked by Ruth Davidson and both represented her inner circle. Their departure marks the end of Davidsonism in Scottish politics. As they abandon Ruth’s project and follow her into the sunset, I genuinely hope they’ll all re-join the fray if we ever have to fight another referendum.

I’m no Tory, but I recognise that we need sensible, moderate conservatives in the UK camp to help us make the positive case for the Union in the months to come. I like Jackson Carlaw personally, but he has failed to pick up the inclusive and electable mantle of Ruth’s leadership. His judgment seems off too. Having Boris visit Scotland in the coming days to win back those that may now be considering independence is like inviting a circus clown to cheer up a birthday party full of coulrophobes.

If the Conservatives continue to prove unequal to the task of making a positive and energetic case for the Union then they need to make way for those of us who can. Because if we can’t reframe that debate around Scotland’s place in this family of nations and if we can’t build a positive and inclusive coalition of voices to speak up for it then nevermind her birthday, all of Nicola’s Christmases will have come at once.

Alex Cole-Hamilton is the Lib Dem MSP for Edinburgh Western

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