Surprise Lib Dem victory leaves Labour leadership vulnerable

By-election victor Louise Spence surrounded by supporters celebrating her win

Their surprise resounding victory, where the Labour Party came a poor second, prompted the SNP Group Leader, Councillor Simita Kumar, to demand that Labour relinquish control of the city administration as they now only have 11 councillors out of a total of 63, in contrast to the SNP’s 18 and the Lib Dems 14 with ten Greens, nine Conservatives and one Independent bringing up the rear.

Presently the Labour Group rely on the tacit support of the Lib Dems and the Tories to run the city but that could change if the Lib Dems in particular decide to flex their newfound political muscle and assume control for themselves.

That is not as easy as it sounds though. If a formal coalition is not on the table, they would have to fill all the convenership and deputy convenership positions including council leader.

These positions are very time consuming (or should be) so Lib Dem councillors would have to look at the impact that this would have on their employment outside their role as councillors. Of course, it could be argued that if they are not prepared to devote the necessary time to cover such positions, they should never have stood for election to the council in the first place – a sentiment, I would suggest, that would find a great deal of support amongst the electorate.

It is clear that the return of an SNP administration is too bitter a pill for some groups to swallow and Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative groups will not risk that happening through a misstep of their own making, However, there is a case to be made that the Lib Dems should take over in the knowledge that they will enjoy the support of these two other groups and the prospect of another SNP administration will not rear its head.

The SNP could argue with some justification that, as the largest group on the council, they should form the administration but, alas for them, that is not how it works in the world of politics, and they will continue to be frozen out.

The Lib Dems may well decide to pursue their position as a back seat driver, knowing that they can continue to influence council policy without sitting in the driver’s seat. They can point to some previous success in this regard particularly in the budget setting process and there will no doubt be other matters that they have exerted their influence behind the scenes.

So, all eyes will be on the Lib Dem group as they continue their deliberations (no surprise there then) before plumping for a course of action that best suits them. If I was a betting man, my money would be on more of the same as the addition of one more councillor to their group is unlikely to have sufficient impact to trigger a change of direction.

If Labour sticks to its guns and refuses to enter into a formal coalition with the Lib Dems, the only alternative would be a clean sweep, with Councillor Kevin Lang taking over from Councillor Cammy Day as council leader and all that that would entail further down the line.