We must hold our nerve amid turbulent times –John McLellan

Ruth Davidson’s departure raises questions about a London-Scotland divide, writes John McLellan
Ruth Davidson addresses the media during her resignation speech. Picture: Robert Perry/Getty ImagesRuth Davidson addresses the media during her resignation speech. Picture: Robert Perry/Getty Images
Ruth Davidson addresses the media during her resignation speech. Picture: Robert Perry/Getty Images

Ruth Davidson wouldn’t have got baby Finn down to sleep on Thursday night by the time several newspapers were preparing front pages speculating about the Scottish Conservatives breaking away from the UK party to create some sort of Quebec-Bavaria-Ruritania arrangement or whatever it might be.

Although the precise timing and the handover procedures were not finalised until early last week, those closest to her have known for some time that her resignation was coming, in all probability before the start of the new parliamentary session next week.

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There had been a possibility she would remain in post until a new leader was elected, but having done such a good job during her maternity leave and retaining his enthusiasm for stepping up to the plate, a caretaker arrangement under deputy leader Jackson Carlaw made sense as long as he was not one of the candidates as he had been in 2011.

Given the relationship with London was the key dividing line between her and Murdo Fraser in that contest, it’s inevitable that it will be raised again against the background of the 62 per cent Remain vote in Scotland and the furore over No Deal.

But while journalists are certainly entitled to ask the questions and for commentators to guess away, the number one question for the party’s senior elected representatives and officials is whether it serves their overarching interests to fuel that debate when so much else is uncertain?

Maybe discussing anything but Brexit is a happy distraction for some, but as the preservation of the United Kingdom remains the absolute priority for Scottish Conservatives the response to the question should be another question; to what extent would separating the party advance its interests when it is likely to be arguing for the maintenance of a much bigger union for the foreseeable future?

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Insiders are already speculating that the contest could be a face-off between Adam Tomkins and Murdo Fraser, in which case a debate about a split could easily become not one of if but how. And the reaction in the world beyond the party membership, will be “who cares?”

Now the succession won’t be decided until the end of the year, no chance of a second independence referendum before the 2021 Scottish elections but the strong probability of an election in early November, what matters is how the party responds to unfolding events.

As Ruth’s leadership moved into its final phase after her triumphant return at the Scottish party conference in May, events in London dictated that the focus in Scotland would be on how she played the UK leadership election and the fast-changing Brexit situation. Apart from resolutely backing Anyone But Boris, it was her equally resolute opposition to No Deal which was clearly storing up problems and from the outside it seemed like she was needlessly boxing herself into a corner.

There was an opportunity to use the summer to pivot away to a new position behind the direction of the UK Government, one which recognised that successful negotiations with the EU to find a new deal she would support relied on the possibility of a No Deal Brexit and an absolute deadline.

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As someone who always valued loyalty, she would fully appreciate the need for the Scottish leader to support the national position – and she had abandoned her opposition to more devolution for the Scottish Parliament when it was expedient to do so – it looked to me like she was laying the foundations for her own exit. After eight years of arguing, debating, negotiating, manoeuvring, leafleting, canvassing , fund-raising dinners far from home and, of course, the abuse, with priorities changed utterly by the arrival of her son her heart wasn’t in it.

That her loyal resignation speech was graceful in the true sense of the word and supportive of Mr Johnson, suggested she recognises the opportunity is there, but it is up to someone else to take it. Polling estimates put support for Brexit in Scotland at over a million, which is a million voters who now have nowhere to go except the Conservative Party. Yes, many of them are right-of-centre Nationalists, but they are people who are willing to put their opposition to the UK on hold while the ties with Brussels are loosened and will not vote SNP while its clear policy is to take Scotland straight back into the EU.

The Shetland by-election result demonstrated that although the SNP threw the kitchen sink and all other available appliances at the campaign and increased its vote share by 6.7 per cent, the Lib Dems still held on by nearly 2,000 votes. The real story of the night was Labour’s miserable sixth place. The once all-conquering people’s party managed just 152 votes, down from 651 in 2016 and putting it in Monster Raving Loony Party territory.

Admittedly the Conservative vote was only 425, but that was an increase of 20 on 2016 when the Ruth Davidson factor was at full strength and the woefully dispiriting May years were yet to come. But with a seemingly unpopular prime minister, the proroguing of Parliament and the announcement of the popular Scottish leader’s resignation, the Conservative vote went up. And yet senior Scottish party figures are saying the only way forward is a new party? OK, Shetland is not a normal seat and the electorate is small, but such up-to-date evidence as we have suggests otherwise.

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As Ruth said on the eve of the 2014 referendum, Scottish Conservatives have got to hold their nerve. After three years in which the Commons has singularly failed to come up with anything other than opposition to everything, Prime Minister Johnson’s cutting of the Gordian Knot, as he might put it, to slash the parliamentary timetable is a dramatic but legal means to bring matters to a head. Remainer ultras like Speaker John Bercow have twisted convention and procedure to their own advantage and are squealing like suckling pigs now they are on the end of a similar approach.

I may be wrong, but the unwillingness of Lord Doherty in the Court of Session yesterday to grant an interim interdict before a hearing on Tuesday suggests the courts will rule the suspension of parliament is a legitimate political move and not a matter for judicial intervention. This is the Brexit endgame and the playing field will be that little bit more level come November.

“There’s a lot to be said for strong leadership,” said a senior political figure to me recently in very hushed tones, followed quickly by “and that was off the record.” Because that person was an ex-Labour cabinet minister.

Conservatives and Unionists just need to keep the heid.