Donald Trump crisis: Questions to be asked over increase in UK defence spending

As the Trump-inspired chaos that currently passes for international diplomacy continues, the main European response so far has been pledges of increased military spending.

It has long been one of Donald Trump's top complaints that Europe has not been paying its share for the West's defences.

The cost of replacing the UK’s Trident nuclear deterrent has soared by £5 billion in three years - and the system is heavily dependent on the US.

And here in the UK there is widespread support among all the parties for the decision to boost the defence budget to 2.5 per cent of national income by 2027 and then aim of 3 per cent. But there are serious questions to be asked.

The Ministry of Defence is notorious for projects which end up years late and vastly over budget. Defence Secretary John Healey, when he was shadowing the post , published a dossier three years ago, exposing what he said was £13 billion worth of waste by the MoD between 2010 and 2021.

And just at the weekend there were reports that the cost of replacing the Vanguard submarines which carry Britain's Trident nuclear deterrent has risen by more than £5 billion in only three years, from £31.5bn to £36.7bn.

Trident itself is heavily dependent on the United States and critics say that, although it is described as Britain’s independent nuclear deterrent, it could never be used without approval from Washington.

What will the extra billions now being found for defence actually be spent on? Because of the time it takes to get production rolling, most of it will almost certainly be too late to help Ukraine. But shares in defence companies have soared as investors anticipate large profits from increased demand for arms.

There is a strategic defence review under way at the moment, but the slow pace of procurement and planning, in contrast to the speed of technological development, means there is a risk of money being poured into the wrong things. Defence experts have observed that even just a few years ago, no-one would have predicted the importance of drones and cyber defence, for example.

And then, of course, there is the question of where the increased spending is coming from. We know already a lot it will be from cuts to international development, threatening countless life-changing projects among some of the poorest people in the world, but also undermining the UK’s “soft power” and opening the door to Russian and Chinese influence in poorer countries.

And it sounds as if Britain’s welfare budget will also be cut to find more for defence. We await details to assess what the true cost of that will be.