General election 2024: Why independence has taken a back seat for many voters

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The battle over independence has been the driving factor in every national election in Scotland since the 2014 referendum, but for many voters the issue has now taken a back seat.

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Other concerns, like the cost of living and the state of the NHS, are likely to be more prominent as people ponder how to vote in the general election on July 4.

SNP Leader John Swinney at the launch of the SNP general election campaign.  Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images.SNP Leader John Swinney at the launch of the SNP general election campaign.  Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images.
SNP Leader John Swinney at the launch of the SNP general election campaign. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images. | Getty

Scots remain almost evenly split on independence - a weekend poll found 52 per cent opposed and 48 per cent in favour, excluding don't knows.

But even the SNP recognises the path to achieving its dream is currently blocked because neither the Tories or Labour at Westminster will agree to another referendum and the courts have ruled Holyrood doesn't have the power to hold one on its own.

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Of course, independence remains the SNP’s central belief - not just another issue alongside rising prices, NHS waiting lists or the housing shortage, but the way these issues can best be tackled. So John Swinney and his colleagues are not going to stop talking about independence.

But he is also talking about these other issues and appealing to the SNP’s reputation for “standing up for Scotland”, urging people to “vote SNP to put Scotland’s interests first”.

So although the SNP will have independence on “page one, line one” of its manifesto and claim a mandate if it wins a majority of the Scottish seats on July 4, no-one is expecting constitutional change any time soon.

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Instead, for many voters this election is all about kicking the Tories out of office. At the SNP’s campaign launch on Sunday, Mr Swinney had a message on that: “If you want Rishi Sunak out of Downing Street, vote SNP.”

The SNP argues it is best placed to get rid of the Tories in Scotland - which is true, but only in the sense that the SNP came second in every one of the six Scottish seats won by the Tories in 2019, all in the North East or the Borders

When it comes to Scotland's part in removing the Tories from power at Westminster, it is Labour which is eager to win central belt seats currently held by the SNP so it can build a clear majority in the House of Commons and oust the Conservatives.

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