Jeremy Corbyn's new party starts with advantage but could seriously damage Labour
Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana's new left-wing party got off to a shaky start.
Ms Sultana appeared to jump the gun with her announcement that she had quit Labour and would be co-leader of a new party with Mr Corbyn. He would only confirm discussions were taking place.
But now it's official and "Your Party" - only its temporary name until members can decide how it will be known - is expected to hold a conference in the autumn.
Pollsters More in Common have suggested the new party could get as much as 10 per cent of the vote at the next general election, taking around 5 per cent from the Greens, 3 per cent from Labour and 2 per cent from elsewhere. In Scotland, it could well draw some votes from disillusioned SNP voters too.
New parties usually face an uphill battle to establish themselves.
People might struggle to remember the centrist, pro-EU Change UK, which was launched with great fanfare in 2019. It was founded by seven Labour MPs, including Chuka Umunna, once seen as a rising star, and Luciana Berger, who claimed the party was "institutionally antisemitic".
And they were joined a few days later by three Tories, including former minister Anna Soubry. But 10 months later the party was dissolved.
Nigel Farage's UK Independence Party (Ukip) and Brexit Party both failed to make any electoral breakthrough before he finally got some MPs elected for his latest party, Reform UK.
The new left-wing party, however, starts with a big advantge: Jeremy Corbyn is already very well known by the general public and had a huge following, especially among younger people, when he was Labour leader.
Thousands chanted his name when he appeared on the Pyramid stage at Glastonbury in 2017. And although the 2019 general election ranked as one of Labour's worst defeats, forcing Mr Corbyn’s resignation, the election two years earlier saw the party perform much better than predicted, taking 40 per cent of the vote and removing Theresa May's overall majority.
But his new party could seriously damage Labour at the next general election. It may not win many seats, but in today’s fragmented political scene, and with Labour’s large Commons majority based on a fairly low total vote, it could easily take enough votes from Labour cause the loss of marginal seats.
And the danger for the left is that that could pave the way for Reform success.