Labour 'still upbeat and ambitious' about 2026 Holyrood elections despite grim opinion polls

Controversial decisions by Sir Keir Starmer and his colleagues at Westminster have seen Labour's lead in Scotland at last year's general election disappear. And commentators have reversed their predictions of victory for Anas Sarwar and his party in next year's Holyrood elections.

Two weeks ago, a poll for The Herald on Sunday found support for Labour had "imploded" and projected it was on course to end up with 16 seats at Holyrood, down six from the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell | Getty Images

A poll at the weekend in the Sunday Times suggested Labour would get 18 seats, the same as the Tories and billed as its worst result since devolution.

But despite the apparently gloomy outlook, insiders insist there is still an upbeat mood in the party. Internal polling is said to paint a more optimistic picture.

They accept the conference is likely to see anger among activists and unions about the party's failure to save Scotland's only oil refinery at Grangemouth.

And discontent could also be on display over a range of other issues, including Gaza, the means-testing of the winter fuel payment for pensioners, the failure to end the two-child benefit cap, the decision not to pay compensation to the Waspi women, the rise in National Insurance employers' contribution and even farmers' inheritance tax.

But one insider says Labour is not deterred by the problems it has experienced since last year's general election victory or the internal criticism and remains positive ahead of the Holyrood elections.

"The party is still upbeat and really ambitious about 2026. Rank and file members understand the difficult decisions, they have concerns about some of it, but they know we have to get through this.

"Polling shows that while our numbers have dipped, the people who have left us for now are largely going to 'undecided' rather than saying they'd vote for another party. SNP numbers had previously come down quite a bit and they haven't really gone back up, even though we've dipped."

Polls currently put the SNP on between 30 and 35 per cent support compared with their showing two or three years ago, when they were often getting in the high 40s and sometimes 50 per cent or more.

"So the hope is that, since many of the people who have left us have not committed to another party, they are still persuadable," says the insider.

"Some people did say they planned to vote Lib Dems or Tory, but that's seen as more of anti-SNP stance than being pro-Lib Dem or pro-Tory, so when it comes to decision time, they might well see that Labour's the best option."