Support for independence appears to be stalling - John McLellan

A new analysis of polling figures for pro-independence think-tank Progress Scotland suggests a 52:48 return in favour of independence last month is now the same proportion in favour of Great Britain.

Scottish independence supporters in Glasgow, January 2020. Picture: John Devlin/JPIMedia

It is claimed there is an in-built bias favouring separation, but however it is presented it’s not in polling company Savanta/Comres’s interests to be associated with rogue surveys.

Whatever the reality, there is ample evidence to show that if a real vote was held the result would be far from certain, and support for independence appears to be stalling.

The experience for most voters is of the Brexit sky not falling in, but the level of UK financial support and the success of the vaccine programme is enough to cast doubts in the minds of the undecided. Meanwhile the SNP’s problems mount up, be it the Salmond affair, the hidden education system report or the drug death toll to name but three.

Even if there is an SNP majority come May, the foundations for a pro-independence victory in a referendum are not solid enough for someone so demonstrably cautious as First Minster Nicola Sturgeon, so what would she do? Call a unilateral vote or a non-binding poll which unionists would boycott and so need a majority of the entire electorate to mean anything? Not call one and be savaged by the wing of the party who fear the moment is passing?

The UK government doesn’t have to send in the heavies like Spain in Catalonia. It just has to keep the cash coming and sit back and watch.