UK Conservative leadership battle: why it matters who succeeds Rishi Sunak

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It wasn't quite as dire as some polls had predicted - one survey suggested the Tories would be reduced to just 70 MPs at the general election. 

But the July 4 result - 121 seats and less than quarter of votes across the UK - was still the party's worst ever performance.  And it happened just five years after it won the 2019 election with an 80-seat majority.

Rishi Sunak wlll continue as leader until November 2Rishi Sunak wlll continue as leader until November 2
Rishi Sunak wlll continue as leader until November 2

In some ways, it's difficult to see why anyone wants to take over from Rishi Sunak as Tory leader - but six of them are set to battle it out for the job after nominations closed on Monday at 2.30pm.

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Former Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, who finished fourth in the 2022 leadership contest won by Liz Truss, is the bookies’ favourite. She will be fighting former Home Secretary Priti Patel and former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick for the right-wing votes. But Suella Braverman, another former Home Secretary, who was an enthusiastic advocate of the now-scrapped Rwanda scheme, is not standing.

Meanwhile, bidding to attract more centrist votes, will be former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat, former Home Secretary James Cleverly and former Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride. But sword-carrying Penny Mordaunt, once seen as the favourite, is not in the race because she lost her seat.

The contenders have August to campaign, then Tory MPs will start voting in early September to whittle the six down to four, who will appear before members at the party conference at the end of September. The MPs then reduce the four to two, whose names go on the ballot paper for the final vote by members to choose the new leader, with the result announced on Noember 2.

Given their much reduced numbers, the humiliation  at the hands of the electorate and the potentially long wait for a return to power, you might conclude it doesn't really matter who leads the party because they could be irrelevant for the foreseeable future.

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But oppositions in the UK tend, eventually, to become governments, so arguably we all have a stake in who becomes the Conservatives’ new leader, or more particularly what direction the party decides to take. If it turns out to be a lurch to the right, that should be a concern all round.

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