Projected population changes by council area in Scotland.

Projected population changes by council area in Scotland.

The council areas in Scotland with highest population growth and decline projections - new figures

By Jamie McKenzie

Published 7th Oct 2020, 07:00 BST

Updated 7th Oct 2020, 09:44 BST

Scotland’s population is expected to grow by 2 percent to 5.54 million in the decade up to 2028 – but more council areas will experience population decline than in previous years.

The latest National Records of Scotland (NRS) analysis shows migration has been - and will continue to be - a major driver in population changes for most parts of the country.

Scotland’s overall population grew by 4 percent to 5.46 million between mid-2009 and the end of June 2019, with a further 2 percent growth projected in the decade up to mid-2028 to 5.54 million.

Here, we list the variation in projected population changes between Scotland’s council areas in terms of highest growth and decline, for the decade up to 2028.

It is worth noting these predictions do not take into account recent changes, such as the increase in deaths due to Covid-19 or the changes to migration as a result of travel restrictions imposed during the pandemic.

Projected population changes by council area in Scotland.

. pjimage - 2020-10-06T213007.286.jpg

Projected population changes by council area in Scotland. Photo: Shutterstock-Robin MacGregor/Michal11/ JPI Media

13.8% population growth has been projected for Midlothian between mid-2018 and mid-2028, following the 12.9% population growth in the area between mid-2009 and mid-2019. A major driver of this is migration from elsewhere in Scotland, with nearly 10,600 more people expected to move to the region during the decade up to 2028.

. Midlothian

13.8% population growth has been projected for Midlothian between mid-2018 and mid-2028, following the 12.9% population growth in the area between mid-2009 and mid-2019. A major driver of this is migration from elsewhere in Scotland, with nearly 10,600 more people expected to move to the region during the decade up to 2028. Photo: Stefano Valeri

East Lothian is projected to have the second highest population growth at 7.2%, slightly less than the 8.9% growth seen from mid-2009 to mid-2019. Net internal migration is the main driver of this, with 7,000 more people projected to arrive than leave the region from other parts of Scotland.

. East Lothian

East Lothian is projected to have the second highest population growth at 7.2%, slightly less than the 8.9% growth seen from mid-2009 to mid-2019. Net internal migration is the main driver of this, with 7,000 more people projected to arrive than leave the region from other parts of Scotland. Photo: Ian Rutherford

Edinburgh's current population of 524,930 is projected to rise to 552,585 - a 6.6% increase - by mid-2028. A NRS spokesperson said migration - mainly from overseas and then other parts of the UK - is the main driver in this and, unlike many other councils, there have been more births than deaths here.

. Edinburgh

Edinburgh's current population of 524,930 is projected to rise to 552,585 - a 6.6% increase - by mid-2028. A NRS spokesperson said migration - mainly from overseas and then other parts of the UK - is the main driver in this and, unlike many other councils, there have been more births than deaths here. Photo: JPI Media

6.4% increase projected in East Renfrewshire.

. East Renfrewshire

6.4% increase projected in East Renfrewshire. Photo: David Falconer

West Lothian has the fifth highest projected population growth at 5.9%, ahead of Stirling. West Lothian is one of the few councils where births are projected to exceed deaths.

. West Lothian

West Lothian has the fifth highest projected population growth at 5.9%, ahead of Stirling. West Lothian is one of the few councils where births are projected to exceed deaths. Photo: JPI Media

4.8% growth is predicted in Stirling, which has the second highest projected population growth for a Scottish city after Edinburgh.

. Stirling

4.8% growth is predicted in Stirling, which has the second highest projected population growth for a Scottish city after Edinburgh. Photo: TSPL

3.8% population increase projected here.

. East Dunbartonshire

3.8% population increase projected here. Photo: Shutterstock

A 3.2% population growth is projected in the Falkirk Council area.

. Falkirk

A 3.2% population growth is projected in the Falkirk Council area. Photo: Robert Perry

Glasgow's 2019 population of 633,120 is predicted to increase to 644,274 - a 2.9% rise. This represents a slowing from the 8.9% growth experienced between mid-2009 to mid-2019 in Scotland's biggest city.

. Glasgow City

Glasgow's 2019 population of 633,120 is predicted to increase to 644,274 - a 2.9% rise. This represents a slowing from the 8.9% growth experienced between mid-2009 to mid-2019 in Scotland's biggest city. Photo: Shutterstock

A 2.5% population growth is projected in Renfrewshire.

. Renfrewshire

A 2.5% population growth is projected in Renfrewshire. Photo: JPI Media/ John Devlin

A 2.5% population growth is forecast here, with the NRS report saying people moving from Aberdeen to Aberdeenshire is the highest migration movement within Scotland

. Aberdeenshire

A 2.5% population growth is forecast here, with the NRS report saying people moving from Aberdeen to Aberdeenshire is the highest migration movement within Scotland Photo: Colftcl

A 2% population growth is projected here, the same as the Scottish average.

. South Lanarkshire

A 2% population growth is projected here, the same as the Scottish average. Photo: Lennystan

13.8% population growth has been projected for Midlothian between mid-2018 and mid-2028, following the 12.9% population growth in the area between mid-2009 and mid-2019. A major driver of this is migration from elsewhere in Scotland, with nearly 10,600 more people expected to move to the region during the decade up to 2028.

1. Midlothian

13.8% population growth has been projected for Midlothian between mid-2018 and mid-2028, following the 12.9% population growth in the area between mid-2009 and mid-2019. A major driver of this is migration from elsewhere in Scotland, with nearly 10,600 more people expected to move to the region during the decade up to 2028. Photo: Stefano Valeri

East Lothian is projected to have the second highest population growth at 7.2%, slightly less than the 8.9% growth seen from mid-2009 to mid-2019. Net internal migration is the main driver of this, with 7,000 more people projected to arrive than leave the region from other parts of Scotland.

2. East Lothian

East Lothian is projected to have the second highest population growth at 7.2%, slightly less than the 8.9% growth seen from mid-2009 to mid-2019. Net internal migration is the main driver of this, with 7,000 more people projected to arrive than leave the region from other parts of Scotland. Photo: Ian Rutherford

Edinburgh's current population of 524,930 is projected to rise to 552,585 - a 6.6% increase - by mid-2028. A NRS spokesperson said migration - mainly from overseas and then other parts of the UK - is the main driver in this and, unlike many other councils, there have been more births than deaths here.

3. Edinburgh

Edinburgh's current population of 524,930 is projected to rise to 552,585 - a 6.6% increase - by mid-2028. A NRS spokesperson said migration - mainly from overseas and then other parts of the UK - is the main driver in this and, unlike many other councils, there have been more births than deaths here. Photo: JPI Media

6.4% increase projected in East Renfrewshire.

4. East Renfrewshire

6.4% increase projected in East Renfrewshire. Photo: David Falconer

Scotland NRS National Records of Scotland Covid-19