More than 4,600 Edinburgh families could be in temporary housing by 2040 as city’s population surges

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More than 4,600 households could find themselves in temporary accommodation in Edinburgh by 2040 – the highest figure of any local authority area in Scotland.

The research by law firm Shakespeare Martineau estimates that more than 506,500 people aged 16 and over will be living in Edinburgh by 2040 – including 112,400 people aged 65 and over, 183,600 first-time buyers (25-44-year-olds), and 35,300 students (18-22).

To accommodate the city’s demographic growth, it needs to build at least 66,100 new homes in less than two decades.

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Across Edinburgh and the Lothians, at least 111,500 new homes need to be built to meet the needs of the region’s 16+ 2040 population, which is projected to rise by 15 per cent to more than 871,000. Overall, the region will also see the largest growth in its 25-44 and 65+ demographics (11 per cent and 39 per cent respectively).

Edinburgh could face a homelessness crisis by 2040 unless more new homes are built, according to the latest research.Edinburgh could face a homelessness crisis by 2040 unless more new homes are built, according to the latest research.
Edinburgh could face a homelessness crisis by 2040 unless more new homes are built, according to the latest research. | Craig Duncan

Of the remaining three local authorities within the region, West Lothian Council is anticipated to witness the most substantial increase in those aged 65 and over, with a projected rise of 48 per cent to more than 47,000 by 2040 – the largest growth in Scotland.

Grant Docherty, partner and head of Shakespeare Martineau’s Edinburgh office hub, said: “The challenge Edinburgh faces is multifaceted, and without urgent action the city’s shortage of homes will force thousands of households into temporary accommodation, exacerbating already existing homelessness and housing crises.

“In addition to the city’s demographic growth, there is a pressing need for affordable housing, especially for first-time buyers, who make up a large part of the projected population boom. Students are also expected to continue to place pressure on the housing market, requiring purpose-built accommodation options.

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“Despite there being a great requirement for development, land in central Edinburgh is scarce, so it is vital the city continues growing outwards and nearby suburbs support in delivering unmet need.

“Additionally, regeneration of under-utilised areas within the city should be prioritised to maximise the use of existing spaces and revitalise communities, ensuring sustainable development that meets the housing demands of a diverse population.”

Left to righ, Grant Docherty, Shakespeare Martineau, and Dan Usher, Marrons.Left to righ, Grant Docherty, Shakespeare Martineau, and Dan Usher, Marrons.
Left to righ, Grant Docherty, Shakespeare Martineau, and Dan Usher, Marrons. | Submitted

Utilising the latest National Records of Scotland population projections, Shakespeare Martineau, supported by socio economic experts at Marrons, has built a national and regional picture of Scotland’s housing need in 2040.

Supplementing this is government data on homelessness applications and the number of households living in temporary accommodation, as well as under-occupation statistics.

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By 2040, Scotland’s 16+ population is expected to grow by four per cent to more than 4.7 million people. To meet the burgeoning demand, at least 352,500 homes need to be constructed across the country by 2040.

Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “Citing pressure on homelessness services, rising property prices and high levels of temporary accommodation, the Scottish government and 12 of the country’s 32 councils have declared housing emergencies – signalling that intervention is needed.

“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a pressing need for strategic collaboration between the public and private sectors to address the growing demand for affordable housing, as well as a real opportunity for purpose-built homes tailored for last-time buyers.

“By capitalising on this, we not only cater to the specific needs of this demographic but also unlock the potential to release much-needed family homes back into the market.

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“Building a range of homes to suit many different needs is not only a priority but a necessity. It creates more choice, aids first-time buyers onto the property ladder, gives expanding families additional space, helps the ageing population downsize and live in homes more suitable for their needs, and adds to the supply of affordable housing.”

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