Scottish Independence polling: Pro-independence surge with clear Yes lead in new indyref2 poll

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The campaign for Scottish independence has been given a major boost after a poll showed a significant swing in favour of Yes.

The poll, undertaken by IpsosMori for STV, interviewed 1,107 adults aged 16 and over by phone between November 22 and 29.

Survey results state that 52 per cent of Scots would vote in favour of independence should an election be held tomorrow, with 43 per cent backing No and 4 per cent saying they did not know.

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With don’t knows excluded, it puts support for Scottish independence at a recent high of 55 per cent, and support for the union at 45 per cent.

A new poll has shown a clear lead for Yes.A new poll has shown a clear lead for Yes.
A new poll has shown a clear lead for Yes.

This is the largest lead for the Yes campaign since a poll in March 2021, prior to the Holyrood election.

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It is also only the second lead for Yes since the election, and the first since September.

Compared to the last poll undertaken by IpsosMori prior to the election, Yes support has grown by five percentage points.

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It also showed that all age groups except those aged 55 and older are more likely to back Yes than back the union.

Nicola Sturgeon has also retained her place as the highest rated leader, with a net satisfaction rating of +20.

Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is close behind in second place with a net rating of +17.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross is the least popular among the Scottish leaders with a net rating of -27.

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Boris Johnson’s ratings are even worse, with four in five Scots dissatisfied with how he is performing and an overall net satisfaction rating of -64 – the lowest number in an IpsosMori poll ever recorded.

Almost three in five (58 per cent) of Tory voters at the 2019 general election also say they are dissatisfied with the Prime Minister.

The Holyrood voting intentions are also positive for the SNP, with 52 per cent of the vote, up two points, while the Tories are on 19 per cent, down one, and Labour on 17 per cent, down five on the constituency vote.

On the regional list, the SNP are on 43 per cent, up four, the Tories on 20 per cent, down three, Labour on 15 per cent, down three, and the Scottish Greens on 12 per cent, unchanged from the last poll prior to the election.

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Alex Salmond’s Alba Party are on 1 per cent of the vote, one percentage point less than prior to the election.

Emily Gray, managing director of IpsosMORI Scotland, said: “This latest poll from Ipsos MORI and STV News indicates that the argument for Scottish independence is far from over, with a slight improvement for the Yes side.

"Given the margins of error around polling estimates, however, neither the Yes or No camps should be confident of victory at this point.

"The Yes camp may be benefiting from what has been a very bad week for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives at Westminster, with fieldwork taking place after heated debate about MPs’ second jobs.”

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SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “I welcome this extremely encouraging poll … however, we do not take anything for granted and will continue to make the case to the people of Scotland of how we can build a fairer, greener and more prosperous nation as an independent country.”

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