Poll suggests Labour could finish fourth behind Greens in Holyood elections
Labour could finish in fourth place behind the Greens in the Scottish Parliament elections, according to a new poll.
The poll by YouGov for the Scottish Election Study shows the SNP clearly in the lead with 34 per cent support in the constituency vote and 28 per cent on the list.
Reform UK is second with 18 per cent constituency support and 19 per cent on the list.
Labour has 14 per cent in both the constituency and list votes, while the Greens have 11 per cent in the constituency vote and 16 per cent on the list.
According to a projection using the DevolvedElections calculator, these figures - which exclude don’t knows and other non-responses - would translate into 57 seats for the SNP, 22 for Reform, 16 for the Greens and 15 for Labour.
The poll found the Lib Dems and the Conservatives were both at 10 per cent in both the constituency and list votes. And the calculator gave the Lib Dems 10 seats and the Conservatives nine.
The poll came as Greens in Manchester celebrated their victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, formerly a safe Labour seat, where Reform came second and Labour were third. But the poll was carried out online on February 11-18, involving over 1,500 Scots voters.
The survey found just 23 per cent thought the SNP government was doing a good job - compared with 40 per cent in December 2021 - but the party’s strong support among pro-independence voters put it in prime position to win most constituencies.
And the SNP and Greens together would have a “comfortable” pro-independence majority in the parliament, despite the poll showing support for a No vote on independence leading Yes by 54 to 46 per cent after undecideds and other non-responses were removed.
Ailsa Henderson, professor of political science at Edinburgh University and prinicpal investigator for the SES, said: “The May 2026 election is taking place in a wider context of anti-incumbent attitudes, and while this continues to hurt the recent and current UK governing parties, the SNP is faring well for three reasons.
“They are buoyed by support from pro-indy voters, the pro-indy Scottish Greens have opted not to stand candidates in seats where they might have challenged the SNP, and increased competition on the pro-union side of the party spectrum raises demands on pro-union voters hoping to vote strategically.
“In such an environment, whether the SNP forms a government on its own could well depend on turnout and the level of tactical voting.”
The poll found only 32 per cent of those who voted Labour at the 2024 UK general election planned to vote Labour at the Holyrood election in May.
Meanwhile, Reform has attracted 46 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in the constituency vote at the last Scottish Parliament elections in 2021 and 19 per cent of those who backed Labour then.
SES co-investigator Fraser McMillan, lecturer in Scottish electoral politics at Edinburgh University, said: “Reform vote intention across both ballots shot up to the high teens at the beginning of 2025 and has remained remarkably stable ever since.
“There has been virtually no difference in the party’s numbers between the constituency and list vote at any point, suggesting their supporters are scunnered with all the other options and therefore not interested in tactical voting considerations.
“This has seriously damaged Conservative prospects for May and hurt Labour at the margins, with Reform now clearly in pole position to become the official opposition after polling day.”