European qualifiers explained: What finishing 3rd, 4th or 5th will mean for Aberdeen, Hearts and Hibs

Two clubs are battling for the Premiership’s remaining European places.

There is one Scottish Premiership fixtures left to play. With Celtic and Rangers guaranteed to take both Champions League slots, and Aberdeen sealing third place, fourth place is still up for grabs with two points separating Hearts and Hibs. And much still depends on the outcome of the Scottish Cup final.

Hearts have the advantage, but Hibs could overtake them and guarantee a European place with a victory over their Edinburgh rivals at Tynecastle on the last day of the season.

Aberdeen’s victory over St Mirren on Wednesday seals third sport for Barry Robson’s team and means St Mirren will finish sixth, so all the focus will be on the derby shoot-out in Gorgie on Saturday, with European places at stake. The team who finish fifth will be depending on Celtic winning the Scottish Cup final the following weekend. Even then, the European qualifiers are fraught with danger.

Scottish clubs are competing to qualify for the Europa League and Europa Conference League.

What happens for clubs finishing third, fourth and fifth in the Premiership if Celtic win the Scottish Cup:

• Aberdeen would then assume the Scottish Cup’s allotted European spot, which is a place in the Europa League play-off round on 24 and 31 August. Victory in that two-legged tie would secure progress to the Europa League group phase. Defeat carries a parachute into the Europa Conference League groups, so European football through to December is guaranteed either way. Third place is the most coveted Premiership spot outwith the top two because – provided Celtic win the cup – it means only one qualifying round must be negotiated in Europe. Even a loss still brings that group slot and several million pounds to go with it.
• The club finishing fourth in the Premiership [currently Hearts, but potentially Hibs] would then get the European spot originally set aside for the team finishing third, which is a place in the Europa Conference League third qualifying round on 10 and 17 August. Success in that two-legged tie would earn progress to the tournament’s play-off round, where a further two-legged tie must be won on 24 and 31 August to secure a berth in the group phase. Defeat at either stage means outright elimination from European competition. Two rounds of European qualifiers can be daunting depending on the level of opposition you encounter. Dundee United’s 7-1 aggregate loss against AZ Alkmaar at the same stage this season indicates how tough it can be.
• The club finishing fifth in the Premiership [currently Hibs, but potentially Hearts] would get the European spot originally set aside for the team finishing fourth – a place in the Europa Conference League second qualifying round on 27 July and 3 August. They would then face three rounds of qualifiers to reach the group stage. Victory in the second qualifying round secures progress to the third qualifying round on 10 and 17 August, another win there and it’s on to the play-off round on 24 and 31 August, and then into the groups if successful. Defeat in any of those three rounds would mean complete elimination from Europe. Fifth is by far the most difficult placing for any team with aspirations of experiencing group-stage football.

What happens for clubs finishing third, fourth and fifth in the Premiership if Inverness Caledonian Thistle win the Scottish Cup:

• Firstly, Inverness would take the tournament’s slot in the Europa League play-off on 24 and 31 August because they would not already have a Champions League place – unlike if Celtic were to lift the cup. Premiership European placings thereafter would be as normal.
• Aberdeen would enter the Europa Conference League third qualifying round on 10 and 17 August and need to win that tie and the subsequent play-off round to reach the group stage.
• The club finishing fourth in the Premiership would enter the Europa Conference League second qualifying round on 27 July and 3 August. As above, that means three qualifying rounds to reach the group stage and is a huge task for any club.
• The club finishing fifth in the Premiership would not get a European place at all.