Hearts analysis: Tynecastle team-mate gives robust defence of Barrie McKay's form but numbers tell a different story

Hearts will be back in action in just four days as the cinch Premiership finally makes its return.

While it’s natural for any team to draw a metaphorical line to distinguish pre-and-post-break football, it feels particularly pertinent for Hearts. Unlike their rivals for third spot in the Scottish top flight, they had to contend with eight games of European football in what was already a cramped schedule, which in turn led to an injury crisis. They went into the shutdown only four points adrift of Aberdeen in the coveted best-of-the-rest place and are determined to prove they remain the strongest side outside of Glasgow.

To get back to their swaggering best there is one player, in particular, who they’ll be looking to unlock over the rest of the season: Barrie McKay.

The former Rangers winger was arguably Hearts’ best outfield player last term and almost certainly their star attacker. While he only scored twice, he tallied up 12 assists and was a constant source of creativity. This term has been a very different story: he’s already managed to score twice but has only one assist.

Barrie McKay has managed just one assist so far this season after racking up 12 last term. Picture: SNS

It’s led to fans questioning what’s wrong with the darling of 2021/22 and whether he should stay in the team. Head coach Robbie Neilson has been reticent to drop him, believing his ability to produce something special out of nothing is worth riding through the downturn in form. And it’s a sentiment shared by the players’ team-mates.

"I think Barrie is a terrific player. Fans tend to get frustrated quicker than us players. We know what Barrie brings to the team. The fans maybe don't see things we see and what management see, that's why he still plays,” striker Lawrence Shankland told the Evening News. “He's the kind of player who provides you with that moment which wins you games.

“It’s just the kind of thing that happens across a season. He can't always be at his best. If you expect someone to be at their best every single week then I can guarantee you're going to be disappointed because it doesn't happen. We know about what he's capable of and we just need to keep backing him.

“He's a top player and we all know that. I'm sure his form will turn again if it has dipped. I don't think it has, to be honest, not by much anyway. I think it's more the expectation of doing so well before which has stuck to him. Sometimes that can be your biggest downfall, doing so well.”

Lawrence Shankland celebrates with Barrie McKay after the latter provided an assist for the opening goal in the Edinburgh derby. Picture: SNS

Shankland certainly has a point. McKay last season created 2.06 shot assists per 90 minutes for his team-mates. David Turnbull was the only player in the entire league to average more. That’s a better figure than Jota at Celtic or Ryan Kent at Rangers. For someone already in his prime, playing outside the big two, there was always going to be some sort of regression. There’s also the expectation from opponents to contend with. So many times this season we’ve seen other teams doubling up on McKay as a way to stop Hearts.

On the other hand, the numbers show a slide that’s a little startling. Let’s begin with shot assists. They’ve dropped from 2.06 to just 0.98.

All the key advanced analytics for attackers tell a similar story: shot attempts per game (1.58 to 1.08), percentage of shots on target (32.7 to 27.3), crosses attempted (2.84 to 1.96), crosses completed (43.4 per cent to 32.5), dribbles attempted (4.44 to 3.86), and touches in the penalty area (2.06 to 1.47).

McKay has received more passes per game. With this he has attempted more forward passes, passes to the final third and through passes than last term, but the accuracy numbers are down in all of those. Forward passing is where it particularly stands out, going from 67 per cent to 54.6.

Barrie McKay in action against Fiorentina during Hearts' Europa Conference League campaign. Picture: SNS

He has, however, attempted fewer passes to the penalty area. So he’s neither getting into the box as much nor attempting to put the ball there. This could speak to a change in formation by Hearts, who’ve largely gone with the 4-2-3-1 in recent months due to a spate of injuries to the defensive line making the 3-4-3 not fit for purpose. As a result, McKay has gone from being the left-sided No.10 in a three-man attack, to the left of a midfield five. It sounds like a subtle change, but they can make all the difference. He’s playing slightly closer to the touchline, further away from the box, while his fellow wide-attacker on the right is playing wider as well and therefore not as best positioned to get on the end of McKay’s through balls.

There’s also the absence of Liam Boyce and his in-game intelligence. In fact, the best defence of McKay, and reason to be optimistic he’s going to turn it on again, is the amount of changes which have happened around him in the early part of the campaign. He’s continually had to play with different team-mates, against different levels of opposition. That’s going to throw off anyone who relies on rhythm and familiarity.

“It will have held him back playing in all those games because we've been changing shapes, changing systems, changing personnel,” said Shankland. “It does take time if you're playing with new players in terms of what you're going to do. But there's still be a lot of passes that Barrie has tried to play which have been nearly there. Like either I or one of the other boys has nearly got on the end of them. If they got in then all these numbers are back up there and nobody is saying anything.

“That [the 3-4-3] is maybe what got the best out of him when he was playing at his best. If we're going to have a more settled formation then it should help him. There's a lot to look forward to for the rest of the season.”

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