Supercomputer predicts Hearts and Hibs Premiership finishes as stats experts cast verdict with key shock
A supercomputer has ran projections on where Hearts and Hibs will likely finish this season.
Stats experts Opta have cast their Premiership predictions through their simulation supercomputer - with one of Hearts and Hibs’ rivals set for a shock relegation play-off.
The Jambos finished second last season and came within minutes of title glory while their Easter Road rivals finished fifth to secure European football again. Opta have ran their simulations for the current campaign that starts this weekend and predict decent campaigns from both sides of Edinburgh.
Hearts come down a place to third as Celtic win the title and Rangers becoming runners-up with Hibs returning to fifth spot. Motherwell maintain their position of fourth and Falkirk coming in sixth means it’d be the exact same teams in this season’s top six that were in last campaign’s. The bottom six throws up a major shock with Aberdeen in the relegation play-off position and Dundee fall through the trap door. Kilmarnock are best of the rest in the bottom half while Dundee United, St Mirren and St Johnstone follow them on the table.
What is Opta’s Supercomputer
Opta’s metrics work as follows: “Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
“The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.”
Their Premiership conclusions state: “The Opta supercomputer’s season predictions have Celtic as the overwhelming favourites. The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the season and O’Neill’s side were crowned champions in a whopping 55.36% of them. That’s more than twice as often as any other team – although perhaps not especially surprising considering they have won 14 of the last 15 Scottish top-flight titles.
“And despite their issues last term, Rangers are the likeliest to challenge them, according to the prediction model. The title went to Ibrox in 26.35% of the 10,000 season simulations. So, while obviously significantly less often than Celtic, that’s still over a quarter of the sims. Hearts were the only other side to win the title in more than 10% of the sims, doing so 11.86% of the time. That equates to 1,186 instances out of 10,000, of course, which might look a little more encouraging.
“Either way, the supercomputer certainly considers them a threat if Celtic and Rangers don’t set a high bar, and they were both erratic enough last term to offer some encouragement to Hearts. But there’s little hope dished out to anyone else. In fact, Hearts’ success rate of 11.86% alone is more than the other nine clubs (excluding Rangers and Celtic, obviously) combined. Motherwell (3.04%) and Hibernian (2.67%) caused the odd shock in the simulations, but no other side won the title in more than 0.24% of the simulations.”
Supercomputer’s projected Scottish Premiership table 26/27
1. Celtic
2. Rangers
3. Hearts
4. Motherwell
5. Hibs
6. Falkirk
7. Kilmarnock
8. Dundee United
9. St Mirren
10. St Johnstone
11. Aberdeen
12. Dundee