The AFCON effect - how many Hibs games will stars miss? Your guide as Bushiri, Chaiwa and Obita chase glory

First, the bad news. None of the three Hibs players currently away on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations is likely, according to the odds makers, to be playing their part in a glorious, uproarious, career-defining triumph in the final scheduled for January 18.

And the good news? Well, that’s pretty obvious, isn’t it?

As much as Hibs fans will be hoping that Rocky Bushiri, Miguel Chaiwa and Jordan Obita perform with distinction and reap real footballing benefits from representing their nations at AFCON, there is a question of priorities. First things first, everyone at Easter Road wants the trio of stars to return fully fit from their exertions at a major tournament.

Then there’s the matter of timing. Without being churlish, there is a natural desire to see Obita, Chaiwa and Bushiri back ‘home’ in Edinburgh as soon as possible. Being short-staffed at the busiest time of the year is NOT an ideal scenario for a Hibs side in need of some upward oomph.

Let’s take a look, then, at how the trio of favourites are likely to fare. And when they might be back in harness for their club.

AFCON format explained

Like next summer’s World Cup, it might actually be quite difficult to get knocked out in the group stages being played out over the first week or so in Morocco. There are six four-team groups, with the top two from each section AND the four best third-placed teams progressing to the last 16.

The whole thing kicks off on Sunday night when the hosts take on Comoros, with the final group games taking place on Hogmanay. After two days off, the round of 16 runs from January 3 through January 6.

Rocky’s DRC looking to top semi-final run

The Democratic Republic of Congo made it all the way to the third place play-off last time out, only losing to South Africa on penalties. They’ve got a recent pedigree, then, when it comes to going far in the tournament.

Bushiri, who didn’t get a single minute of game time in the last AFCON, was still away from Hibs for the thick end of a month. The comments of then-manager Nick Montgomery on the central defender’s absence were frequent and, understandably, a little spikey.

Bushiri has played more for the DRC during their ongoing World Cup qualifying campaign, and he’ll be expected to feature in the tournament. So how far are they likely to go?

DRC Group B fixtures

Well, most experts think the Congo are battling it out with Senegal to top Group D, which also includes Benin and Botswana. The Leopards, as the DRC are known, have progressed from the group stages in each of the last four tournaments.

So, while they aren’t among the leading favourites to win the whole thing, it’s hard to see them not reaching the last eight. Which would mean Bushiri being out of action for the next FIVE Hibs games, at least.

Miguel’s Zambian adventure

Chaiwa and his team-mates are really up against it in Group A, where the clear favourites – for the whole tournament itself - are host nation Morocco. Mali, despite failing to qualify for the World Cup, are also expected to provide a tough test.

In an event as unpredictable as AFCON, it would be silly to dismiss Comoros as no-hopers. They’re more than capable of pulling off some big wins against the very best teams in Africa.

Zambia’s Group A games

Zambia are probably competing with Comoros for third place in the group. Which would put them into the last 16. Once they get into the knockout stages, a lot would depend on the draw.

If they go out in the group stages, Chaiwa could be back to face Kilmarnock at Rugby Park on January 3. Progress to the knockouts would see him miss that game – but he could be back for the visit of Motherwell to Easter Road the following weekend.

Jordan in group of peril

It’s slightly mad that veteran fullback/wingback Obita is making his major tournament debut at the age of 32. But this was all part of the plan when he accepted Uganda’s call-up towards the end of last season.

As for how The Cranes will fare in Morocco, they’re in Group C. If not quite a group of death, then certainly a group of that nasty bug doing the rounds …

Uganda Group C fixtures

Nigeria’s Super Eagles are clear favourites, despite looking a little flaky in World Cup qualifying. The depth of quality available to the three-time AFCON winners is, frankly, terrifying.

But there is ALWAYS drama around Nigeria, with former great John Obi Mikel going public this week with his concerns over the selection process for the squad, telling media back home: “I don’t think the right players are being selected… I think the manager doesn’t have the full authority… there’s a lot of influence on his selection.” Will that be a factor for a team knocked out of the World Cup by Bushiri’s DRC?

Tunisia, ranked 40th in the world and playing closer to home than some of their rivals, should push Nigeria for top spot in the group. Uganda’s entire AFCON experience may come down to their head-to-head with Tanzania, yet to win a game in four tournament appearances – but that might not be enough to make the knock-out rounds.

How will Hibs cope?

David Gray isn’t one to worry about the things he can’t affect. Speaking about his AFCON-bound stars after the Rangers game on Monday night, he told The Evening News: “Rocky went away today, Miguel is tomorrow, Jordan on Wednesday. So I wish them all the best. It's a good opportunity for them, something they've worked hard to go and do. So we'll keep an eye on how they get on.

AFCON knock-out stages

“I think the important thing now is making sure you recover everybody and keeping the group as fit as you can, as much as you can control anyway. And it provides opportunities for other people to get games.

Hibs fixture list through to AFCON Final

“That’s the benefit of having a squad. And we knew this was coming, we knew that was coming up. So we'll obviously lose three important players, but I know we've got a squad to go and deal with it.”

Your next Hibs read: Why Easter Road return was so important to Rocky’s AFCON ambitions