Are Hibs favourites to finish fourth? Five reasons for Easter Road optimism as European chase goes up a notch

They’ve chased down an eye-catching Motherwell side and Hibs have taken flight just as their rivals hit turbulence.

As the fourth-placed Steelmen lost at home for the first time since October by a 3-2 margin against Falkirk, David Gray’s Hibees stormed to a commanding 3-0 victory against Kilmarnock. Going into their game in hand against Dundee on March 7th, Motherwell could have extended the gap on Hibs to 10 points, all but ending Easter Road ambitions of claiming the final European qualifier spot. The gap is now just three in search of reaching the second round of Conference League qualifying.

Losing at Dens Park has sparked a winless run of four matches, losing three, with the other result being a goalless draw versus Hibs at Fir Park. Gray’s men meanwhile have lost just once since January and head to a spiralling Aberdeen side with the chance to go level on points heading into the split, as Motherwell face Hearts at Tynecastle, where the league leaders are currently undefeated. So are the men from Leith the new favourites for fourth? We take a look at five reasons why they may just fit that tag.

Recruitment impact

Seasons at Premiership level can usually correlate with good recruitment. Look at Hibs’ weekend opponents for example who are mired in an unthinkable relegation battle under new boss Stephen Robinson. They have spent the full season throwing darts at the board with very few coming up trumps while one they let go for free, Jamie McGrath, thrives in Leith as the club’s number 10 with ability to cover other areas. January again proved a great month for Hibs, as they made big money through Kieron Bowie’s exit to Hellas Verona, while Owen Elding has proven an excellent replacement since arriving from Sligo Rovers.

Ante Suto has hit the goal trail and earned international acclaim in Australia and Felix Passlack is growing into his role as the club’s up and down right-wing-back. Kai Andrews has scored a winner at Parkhead against Celtic while raw attributes are there to suggest Tottenham loanee Dane Scarlett has the potential to become a good forward. Motherwell didn’t need to go on a shopping spree in January but they signed one player, Norwegian striker Eythor Bjorgolfsson, to remedy a lack of a proper focal point in Jens Berthel Askou’s ranks. It has, however, left the group that has got them this far to get over the line and there have been signs over recent games that they’re perhaps running out of gas. Good news for Hibs who continue to motor.

Life on the road

Fir Park has been a fortress for Motherwell this season and it speaks to how well sixth-placed Falkirk have competed this term that they have defeated them across back-to-back matches in ML1. It’s where the majority of Motherwell’s points have been picked up with 10 wins out of 17 and just the two losses against John McGlynn’s Bairns. Compared to their travels, Motherwell have won four out of 15, twice against basement side Livingston, once at 11th-placed Kilmarnock and the other was an impressive 5-0 rout of 10th placed St Mirren.

Going by the first 33 games of the season, they are due another trip to Easter Road, Falkirk and Rangers before the term is out. Hibs meanwhile have, on paper, an easier pre-split game before being due home games versus the Steelmen, Celtic, Falkirk and Hearts. They won’t get all four but three out the five is a possibility and hands Hibs a big boost.

Strength in depth

It ties largely into the first point but who both sides were able to bring on to impact their respective matches on Saturday says plenty about levels of squad depth. Gray deployed Martin Boyle and Suto off the back of Australia duty alongside experienced campaigners Joe Newell and Josh Campbell, plus Coventry loanee Campbell. They’ve still got Rocky Bushiri and Nicky Cadden to come back into the fold, while Motherwell turned to Sam Nicholson in search of inspiration against Falkirk, amid a building up of his fitness after long-term injury.

Midfielder Oscar Priestman has impressed this season and provided a strong option while Jordan McGhee made his fifth appearance of the term, and youngster Luca Ross got a chance late on. Bjorgolfsson, Callum Slattery, Johnny Koutroumbis, Regan Charles-Cook and Callum Hendry were all missed as possible impact players and how quickly Askou can get some of them back may dictate how many points they accumulate in the final six matches.

Hibs form surge

There were alarm bells ringing on a Hibs season threatening to drift into the ‘meh’ zone after Scottish Cup elimination to Dunfermline Athletic was followed up by a 4-1 thumping off Falkirk on January 24th. A derby defeat to Hearts proved painful on February 10th, but to their credit, it’s the only game Hibs have lost since that dismal afternoon in Grangemouth. Draws in that time against Dundee and Livingston are there to be rued but 16 points gained out of 27 that’s included tussles with all but one side in the top half, three of those away from home, is decent going. Similar shooting over the last six hurdles could get them over the line.

Top six records

It’s been a gauntlet of matches for Motherwell, who played their last game against a bottom six side this season when facing Dundee in early March. Their record against the top half team this season reads as two wins, seven draws, and five defeats. Some of those draws really ought to have been wins and how remarkable their season could look then, but they didn’t, and now victories must be clinched to keep Hibs at bay. Gray’s team meanwhile have three wins, five draws and seven defeats. More defeats, but compared to Motherwell’s 13 points, Hibs have a plus one advantage. It’s neck and neck but they’ve played away twice to all but Rangers while Motherwell have hosted the Light Blues, Falkirk and Hibs on two occasions. How much it matters when the pressure dial is ramped up remains to be seen but the race to the continent is certainly one to watch with intrigue.