How Hibs can close gap on diminished Dons in Easter Road head-to-head - Tactics Zone opposition analysis

Hibs and Aberdeen may only be separated by five points in the Scottish Premiership table. But the contrasting fortunes of the two teams scheduled to meet at Easter Road on Saturday afternoon could hardly be more glaring.

True, football being an industry almost immune to logic, there is every chance that the Dons will suddenly rediscover the winning streak that saw them soar to the top of the table during the early months of this season. Jimmy Thelin’s men must have the potential to break out of their funk at some point, right?

But Aberdeen are a team in the grip of a serious crisis. Hibs are odds-on with the bookies for this fixture because, judged on any criteria, David Gray’s men SHOULD dismantle the dismal Dons. Assuming, of course, the home side turn up ready to squeeze the life out of their visitors.

Even without factoring in the intangible elements such as confidence and momentum, this contest is a good match-up for Hibs, who ran out comfortable 3-1 winners at Pittodrie just over five weeks ago. Well equipped to hurt Aberdeen in precisely the worst weak spots exposed by any number of teams over the past couple of months, Gray’s side will not be short of opportunities to inflict damage.

A numbers game

Starting with the obvious, Aberdeen are currently mired in a 13-game winless run in the Scottish Premiership, racking up NINE losses and four draws during that series of disappointments. That’s four points from a possible 39 in case you weren’t counting.

They’ve scored one goal in their last seven leagues games, having been kept off the scoresheet by their four most recent league opponents. During that run of games without a victory, they’ve scored just eight – and conceded 26.

Even factoring in that blistering start to the season, they’re sitting second bottom of Scotland’s top flight when it comes to expected goals (xG) conceded. So, shipping goals at one end but unable to hit water falling out of a boat at the other. Apart from that, everything is just dandy …

Defensive failings

There were obviously mitigating factors in Saturday’s 3-0 home loss to St Mirren. Individual errors that would drive any coach to distraction and distress.

But there were also structural problems evident in how the Dons set up to play the Buddies. From leaving themselves two-v-two against pace at the back (Photo 1) to simply failing to deal with the most basic long ball.

Photo 1 | Wyscout

There isn’t much on when Alex Gogic gets the ball back in his own defensive third (Photo 2) but, with the Aberdeen central defenders in a horrible shape, the former Hibee knows that even a semi-accurate punt forward has a chance of catching them off guard. Which it did.

Photo 2 | Wyscout

Leaving gaps to be exploited has been something of a recurring theme for Thelin’s team of late, with spaces in between central defenders and wandering fullbacks (Photo 3) likely to have Martin Boyle absolutely purring in anticipation.

Photo 3 | Wyscout

Jimmy’s grand plan

Speaking to regular Dons watchers before the now-famous 3-3 draw at Easter Road back in November, a result and performance that changed everything for Hibs, they were unanimous in feeling that Thelin’s men were probably sitting further up the table than performances suggested. They were good, seemed to be the consensus, but not brilliant.

Photo 4 | Wyscout

Without the ball, they will try to create two solid-ish lines of four to be broken down, although players can be pulled out of this block (see Photo 4). And there is often space between the lines, if players can find it (Photo 5).

Photo 5 | Wyscout

Last time on Dons v Hibs …

That 3-1 win at Pittodrie is obviously of relevance, given how much Hibs took from that performance and result against hosts who were still sitting second in the Scottish Premiership at kick-off. It’s interesting, for starters, to see the average positions of the visiting players in that game (Photo 6) showing how advanced Nicky Cadden was on the left; the 3-4-1-2 was more like a 4-3-3 on occasion.

Photo 6 | Wyscout

The lack of defensive organisation that would soon become obvious to everyone was clear in the thin red line on that day, as Hibs equalised after the loss of an early goal – thanks to nothing more subtle than a long ball from hand by goalkeeper Jordan Smith, flicked on by Josh Campbell (Photo 7), leaving Boyle and scorer Elie Youan in a two-v-one that they finished in some style.

Photo 7 | Wyscout

Having Campbell play in behind two quick players able to stretch the defence paid off enormously in this game, as the attacking midfielder made hay in the space provided for him. On a day when Nicky Cadden and Boyle himself got on the scoresheet, the latter thanks to a piece of clever anticipation by Nectar Triantis to win the ball, there was a tangible change of mood in both camps. Everything Gray planned came off, while Thelin could find no way to break the visitors’ hold.

If Hibs haven’t been on an entirely upward trajectory since that game, with the odd mis-step inevitable, the Dons would appear to be a deeply diminished team. There for the taking (again) if Gray’s men get the basics right.