Here's how Hibs can break Dundee at Easter Road - Tactics Zone words and video ahead of SPFL clash
Video analysis and metrics all point to one outcome - but when was football ever logical?
Dundee represent an odd sort of challenge for Hibs at Easter Road tomorrow. It’s the sort of game the home side should win. Must win, even, if they’re to maintain the momentum built heading into the international break.
But how will David Gray’s men get the job done? Where are the weaknesses that Hibs can exploit?
Dundee formations examined
Well, let’s start with the basics. Dundee tend to line up in a 3-4-3 that quickly becomes a 5-4-1 under pressure. If they go man for man against Hibs, it could be a long afternoon for Steven Pressley’s men.
In terms of how they build, Goalkeeper Jon McCracken is actually pretty decent with his feet, although he doesn’t get a huge number of opportunities to prove it. More often than not, the smart play is to go long on top of the centre forward and look to play from there.
Beating the press
Without the ball, Dundee tend to sit off and create a compact unit. When they have looked to press, trying to force play down one side, it’s not been pretty; they have been bypassed and left short of numbers in their own final third.
The numbers tell us that the Dark Blues are being outshot and outscored by everyone. And they barely got above 35 per cent possession in their most recent trip to Edinburgh, a 4-0 rout at Tynecastle.
If you like passes per defensive action – PPDA for short – as a measure of how hard they make life for the opposition, they’re really passive. Opponents can play, on average, 15 passes before being confronted by a successful tackle, block or interception. Dundee muster around eight before giving it away.
So where can Hibs do damage? Well, the usual rules apply. Move the ball quickly. Keep players in motion. Find feet and be brave enough to play through gaps as they appear.
Danger zone exposed
Looking at Dundee’s most recent games, they’ve lost goals from corners – and look vulnerable to runners from deep starting positions. They also have a tendency to leave space on the edge of the box as their back five drop deep to man the barricades; Hibs will not ignore opportunities to play in that danger zone.
Dan Barlaser should be able to get on the ball in the centre of the park, while there could be opportunities for central defenders to step into midfield and break the lines. Every piece of footage, every data point and metric rating, tells us that Hibs will win this one. At the end of the week when all footballing logic was turned on its head, however, there are no guarantees …
John Greechan holds a UEFA B Licence in coaching and Certificate in Advanced Tactical Analysis from Barca Innovation Hub Universitas.