Are Hibs still in realistic race for fourth-place finish? Euro qualification points target revealed

The target is clear enough. The situation isn’t quite as hopeless as it might seem. But it’ll take a concerted effort for Hibs to get where they want – no, need – to be at the end of a season that, in the eyes of many supporters, already feels as if it’s trundling towards an anti-climactic early conclusion.

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, any detailed breakdown of the numbers shows that David Gray’s men are EXACTLY bang on course to reach the points total needed, more or less, to finish fourth in the Scottish Premiership. Give or take maybe one result either way.

But, of course, data is all about the interpretation. And, in a game containing so many variables, nothing is ever as straightforward as it looks on paper.

How does the maths break down? Well, let’s start at the beginning. Or, rather, the final destination …

Setting the bar high

Finishing fourth has to be the bare minimum if Hibs are to have a guaranteed shot at playing in European football for the second season running, an achievement of no little import or consequence. Even if fifth place, combined with a very specific turn of events both at the very top of the Scottish Premiership and in the Scottish Cup, could still offer a side door into UEFA competition.

Hibs fans already know what it’s like to have their European ambitions dashed by events at Hampden, with Aberdeen’s surprise win over Treble-chasing Celtic in last season’s final denying Gray’s men guaranteed league stage football. They don’t want to go through that sort of disappointment again, obviously.

Within the first-team camp, of course, all the talk remains about “catching the team in front.” Which means overtaking Motherwell to claim that top-four spot.

Steelmen sitting well clear

Jens Berthel Askou’s team are currently five points ahead of Hibs, with the Steelmen also holding a game in hand. Just a few weeks on from missing out on the chance to leapfrog Motherwell, Gray’s team are definitely playing catch-up.

Taking a step back from the immediacy of that head-to-head, and not forgetting that Falkirk have now put even fifth spot in doubt for Hibs, history tells us that they CAN get the job done. But it’s going to take something special.

How many points is enough?

Taking the last ten complete 38-game seasons of top-flight action, excluding the Covid-shortened campaign, there have been some wild swings in points totals for teams finishing fourth. Nothing is certain.

Back in season 2018-19, for instance, Aberdeen accumulated a grand total of 67 points in finishing fourth in the table. They were equal with third-placed Kilmarnock, losing out only on goal difference.

In the 2021-22 campaign, however, Dundee United only needed 48 points to sew up fourth spot. But that was a year when Celtic won the league with 93 points, with Rangers bagging 89 on their way to second place – probably not a fair comparison to the current campaign, with its multi-party title race.

Taking all ten seasons to work out an average, rounding down for simplicity’s sake, it usually takes somewhere in the region of 57 points to get the job done. If Hibs hit that target, well, they’ll at least have given themselves a chance.

So that works out at a ‘run rate’ of …

Here’s the good news. To reach 57 points, Hibs need to get 18 from their remaining 12 fixtures. Which works out at precisely 1.5 points per game.

And to date? They’ve bagged 39 points from 26 games. Which is … yep, exactly a point-and-a-half per match.

Maintain current course and speed, then, and all is golden. If only it were that simple. Because, of course, the SPFL split definitely has to be factored into any calculations.

True, there have been campaigns where Hibs have blazed their way through the post-split fixtures after claiming a top-six spot. But their average return, over the past five seasons when they’ve qualified for the top half, works out at six points from five games.

Remaining pre-split fixtures

If they don’t surpass that record this time around, then you’re looking for the Easter Road side to bag a dozen points from the remaining seven fixtures before the split. Let’s err on the side of caution, even, and say that Gray would really like 13 or 14 points in the bag before the league hits that frantic dash towards the finish line.

So that’s four wins and a draw (or two) from the remaining scheduled fixtures on the card. St Mirren, Livingston and Kilmarnock at home should – should – produce three victories, right?

If those games go as expected, it’s then a case of picking up four or five points from away games against Celtic, Dundee, Motherwell and Aberdeen. Nobody said it was going to be easy. But impossible? No. Not yet, anyway.

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