Hibs opponents in spotlight as Livi numbers reveal crisis for relegation-haunted former Easter Road favourite
Marvin Bartley’s men trail in almost every metric - so do numbers add up to three guaranteed points for David Gray’s side?
On paper, it shouldn’t be a contest. But you can fill in your own punchline about football, playing surfaces and the gulf between numbers on the page and events on the pitch.
As David Gray looks to shield his Hibs team from the merest hint of complacency ahead of their return to competitive action, no huge danger given the nature of their late slip-up against Dundee last time out, he probably won’t want to focus too much on Livingston. Except to point out, perhaps, that Saturday’s visitors to Easter Road are due some sort of a lucky break, during this season of strife?
The truth, of course, is that every available metric concerning Livi – now managed by former Hibs favourite Marvin Bartley, who inherited the role from David Martindale just last month – suggests they are a team destined for relegation at a pretty swift rate. So what, exactly, do the numbers tell us? And can they really be as bad as all that?
The (very) basics
Livingston haven’t won a game, in any competition, since August 9, 2025. That 3-1 home victory over Falkirk was their only league triumph of the season to date.
The sit seven points adrift of Kilmarnock at the very bottom of the Scottish Premiership table, with just nine rounds of fixtures remaining. Although they aren’t burdened with the worst offensive or defensive record, statistically speaking, they’re level with Killie on goal difference … showing a humbling minus-28 score in that category.
Close games and and near misses
It’s not that they’re awful in every department. In fact, when it comes to average possession, although they sit ninth in the rankings, they’re only a few percentage points behind Hibs, who are listed in sixth by the stats experts at FotMob. They regularly find themselves in games. Up to a point.
They’ve picked up some decent draws of late, not least a 2-2 at home to Rangers, and were unlucky to lose 2-1 to Celtic. And they’re undefeated in their last three games. But three points from the last 21 available has left Bartley’s boys well off the pace needed to even secure a play-off.
Attack, attack … erm, attack?
Livingston have actually scored more goals than St Mirren, Dundee and – to the shock of no-one in the north east – Aberdeen. But they’re not exactly a powerhouse team in the opposition final third.
In terms of expected goals (xG), they’re ranked 11th in the league. Hibs, for what it’s worth, are still hanging onto third in that category.
When it comes to shots on target, while Hibs are averaging 5.1 per game (third in the Scottish Premiership), Livingston are mustering just 3.3 per match. Again, that ranks them second from bottom in the division.
It’s a similar story on ‘big chances’ and touches in the opposition box, with Livi ranked 11th on both. They’re not in that relegation zone by accident.
Keeping the opposition at bay – sort of
If they’ve struggled to make the most of possession, Livingston haven’t been much better without the ball. Even if they’re still (just) ahead of Killie in the Scottish Premiership goals conceded column.
Not everyone loves xG. But it’s a fair enough measure of chances created – and conceded. And, with an xG against of 57.4 in 29 league games, Livi are dead bottom of the table. They give up opportunities.
Five key categories where Livingston struggle
| Metric via FotMob | League rank |
| Expected goals | 11th |
| Expected goals against | 12th |
| Shots on target per match | 11th |
| Touches in opposition box | 11th |
| ‘Big chances’ created | 11th |
Still, they do at least get stuck in. Although the fact that they’re sitting third in tackles per match isn’t quite the giveaway stat that some might expect; Hearts sitting second illustrates that it’s not all about being under pressure.
Those are the numbers, then. But not quite the full story. As anyone who remembers November’s 2-2 draw in Livingston can testify.
Having scudded Livi at Easter Road earlier in the season, and knocked Martindale’s men out of the League Cup away from home, Hibs really let things slip the last time these sides met. The visitors were in control. Then they weren’t. And lost an injury-time equaliser, this one from the penalty spot, in a game that should have been won.
Gray will have had plenty to say to his players, during the long stretch of training since dropping points at Dens, on the subject of late concessions. One number that he may be focusing on, more than any other, as his team return to action in search of three vital points this weekend.