Hibs chasing post-split points record in pursuit of historic Euro return - what numbers tells us about chances

All you need is, what, love? Hope? A bit of luck? How about two home wins and a bit of help from a rival.

Good questions. In examining what Hibs might require to secure back-to-back European qualification for the first time in half a century, however, it’s more important to ask not just how they reach that promise land – but how likely they are to get there.

For that, we turn to the history books. Consider the fact that the Easter Road side have never taken more than eight points from any top-six post-split run-in. And use the data from a dozen different campaigns to inform our expectations for the weeks ahead.

As David Gray’s men prepare to kick off their final run of five fixtures with a home doubleheader against Hearts and then Celtic, plenty of fans will tell you that back-to-back wins in those fixtures will give the Easter Road side enough momentum. With Motherwell at home to come on the final day of the season, well, it’s all set up for Hibs.

Talk of winning all three home games to make up that three-point deficit, plus goal difference, on the Steelmen all sounds pretty straightforward. Until you realise that Hibs have NEVER won three out of five games in the top-six split. So what do the numbers tell us?

Law of averages

Since the introduction of the SPFL split in season 2000-01, Hibs have competed in the top six on 12 occasions. They’ve accumulated 58 points over that period, winning 13 out of 60 games.

That averages out at just over one win out of five, over the course of those dozen campaigns, delivering 4.8 points per season. Or a smidgen under a point per game.

Would five points, rounding up, be enough to overtake Motherwell? Well, it would have to include a win – possibly a big win – at Easter Road on the final weekend of the Scottish Premiership season.

Even then, Hibs would probably require a slip-up or two from Jens Berthel Askou’s men, who have been handed the second toughest run-in in the top flight, according to at stats experts commissioned by bookmakers OLBG. How likely are all of those things to happen?

Best of the best

On two occasions, Hibs have managed to bag an impressive eight points from their final run of top-six fixtures. The most recent was in season 2022-23 when Lee Johnson’s men, on their way to finishing a disappointing fifth, beat St Mirren and Celtic at home, as well as drawing with Aberdeen and Hearts.

Back in season 2017-18, meanwhile, a newly-promoted Hibs – under the guidance of Neil Lennon – came flying out of the blocks in the post-split schedule, winning back-to-back games at home to Celtic and then Kilmarnock. After drawing away to Aberdeen and losing at Tynecastle, Lenny’s boys rounded the season off with a barnstorming 5-5 draw at home to Rangers, finishing the campaign with a club record top flight haul of 67 points … good enough for fourth place.

Record haul to date

In total, from all 12 season, Hibs have only won two out of their closing five games on three occasions; they netted two victories in a draw in season 2020-21.

It may take something like that to get over the line this time around. And there’s a reason why stunning finishing sprints don’t happen very often.

The top six is tough

The fewest points Hibs have ever taken from their closing stretch in the top half of the Scottish Premiership? Two. It’s happened twice.

In season 2018-19, they were handed the ideal start to the post-split campaign – back-to-back home games against Celtic and then Hearts. Looks familiar, right?

Lowest points total

But they could only take two points from those fixtures, grinding out a 0-0 against the Hoops before bagging a 1-1 draw with their city rivals, in a game where no Hibs player actually hit the net, despite the home side being awarded a penalty. Christophe Berra’s own goal was celebrated, all the same.

With Paul Heckingbottom at the helm, Hibs then lost three on the bounce – away to Rangers and Kilmarnock, then at home to Aberdeen – in a disappointing end to the campaign.

Hibernian’s only other winless post-split top-six card came in season 2007-08, when Mixu Paatelainen – who had taken over from John Collins in the January – saw his men pick up just a pair of draws in the run-in. Hibs finished that season with a home loss to Motherwell, incidentally.

Adding it all up

With Motherwell’s goal difference – they’re up nine on Hibs – worth an extra point, in real terms, you’d have to say Hibs need something special to make up the gap on the Steelmen. They might even have to break their own record by taking nine points out of the 15 available, depending on results elsewhere in this cockamamie campaign.

But two home games out of the block gives them a chance, at least, to set the tone. And take a couple of giant leaps towards uncharted territory, statistically speaking.

Your next Hibs read: Chaiwa Celtic interest addressed as manager talks midfielder impact