Analysis

Flying under radar no longer an option for Hibs side just four points off second place - and aiming higher

Motherwell in sights - with Celtic and Rangers not out of reach - after nine-point haul

They’ve been a blip on the radar, lurking rather than looming, lost amid the riot of alarms and acclaim generated by teams with higher profiles, greater expectations – and more eye-catching narratives. The fact that even a maximum points haul from a tumultuous three-game week hasn’t moved Hibs so much as a single position in the Scottish Premiership table, meanwhile, rather underlines this notion that David Gray’s fifth-placed side are yet to make a serious impression on season 2024-25.

With all due respect, however, the underlying signals could hardly be more clear, for those attuned to the right frequency. Would a home win over Motherwell, everyone’s favourite footballing swashbucklers, be enough to propel the Easter Road side – sitting just four points off SECOND place in the league, remember – into a wider conversation about up-ending the established order in Scottish football?

Hearts and Aberdeen beaten in back-to-back home games

That’s the opportunity that presents itself to Gray and his players next weekend, of course. If yesterday’s grinding win over a struggling Kilmarnock side wasn’t quite as noteworthy as the previous weekend’s derby demolition of Hearts, or even the comfortable midweek cuffing of Aberdeen, the fact that a weakened Hibs managed to let their quality show in key moments definitely bodes well for that potentially campaign-defining visit of the silky Steelmen.

So what did we learn from a 3-1 win that saw Elie Youan net twice and Jamie McGrath bag the killer third from the penalty spot? And what does the recent run of results tell us about the likelihood of Hibs becoming impossible to overlook as the season hurtles into 2026 with all the quiet understatement of a school marching band accompanying a cavalry division over an iron bridge?

Making history makes a difference

A first win for Hibs at Rugby Park since October of 2020. A remarkable enough achievement in its own right. Because that pandemic-era victory, with the likes of Stevie Mallan and Ryan Porteous in the starting XI for the visitors, feels like an episode from a bygone age.

What does it matter? Well, it’s at least an indicator of how difficult it is to defeat Kilmarnock on the plastic pitch, almost regardless of how the home side are playing.

Gray used history a lot as a motivator during his first season as gaffer, regularly challenging his players to break this or that hoodoo. It propelled them to break a club record for consecutive league games unbeaten – a major factor in completing their climb from last place to finish third in the top flight.

As they celebrate their first three-game winning streak of the current season, Gray is entitled to use the result – a battling victory that saw Hibs take an early lead, surrender an equaliser and flirt with falling apart before ability and drive made all the difference when it mattered – as a confidence booster. And start digging through the stats book for another little incentive ahead of Saturday’s clash with Motherwell.

There can only ever be one Elie Youan

Oh man, where to begin? The two goals, obviously. The missed chance in the first half. A chance carved out, at least in part, by his own brilliance.

There were long spells of yesterday’s game where Hibs fans would gladly have replaced Youan with just about anyone on the bench. All of his old failings were in evidence, especially as Kilmarnock rallied following their equaliser.

But all of the qualities that make Youan unplayable, at times, were also on show. The guy isn’t so much an enigma as he is the footballing equivalent of an extremely maddening seeing-eye puzzle; no matter how hard you look, you’ll never get a complete picture.

Gray, for his part, said of Youan: “I think he takes his goals really well. I think there are a couple of other chances, as well. He's probably a little bit frustrated with it, that he never converted them.

“Massive credit to the players for finding a way to make sure we got the three points in the end, rather than being pegged back. I'm delighted with everybody.

“Elie will get the credit for his performance, in terms of his goals, and what he brought to the team today, and I think that's right. But it was very much a team effort from everybody.”

The stats don’t lie

Yes, Kilmarnock rallied well at the start of the second half. Their up and at ‘em approach produced a moment of unnecessary panic and they deserved their equaliser.

But let’s not pretend that there was any sort of parity between the teams. When they needed it, Hibs had the quality to make all the difference.

Take a look at some of the stats – the visitors nine shots on target to Killie’s one, just to pick out a single metric – and you’ll see that the away side dominated. Hell, they could have been out of sight by half-time, had they been just a touch more accurate.

Match stats courtesy of FotMob

KilmarnockHibs
Shots815
On target19
Big chances13
Expected goals (xG)0.462.42

As concerned as Gray might be over his team’s inability to put Killie away before the break, he could take heart from the way they responded to the equaliser, pointing out: “It would have been easy to feel a bit sorry for ourselves. The frustration for me at the side was that I thought our quality dropped in the second half.

“I do think Kilmarnock made it more difficult for us as well, and played to the conditions maybe a little bit better than we did. But we weathered that storm apart from the goal.

“We didn't really give up too many big chances in the game. The quality we did show then, to go and make sure we found a way to go and win the game, get back into the game … I think we fully deserved to win it.”

Squad strength tested to limit

Hibs started the game with their top two goal scorers, Martin Boyle and Kieron Bowie, missing from the starting XI. That’s 16 goals sitting on the bench or, in the case of Boyle, at home waiting on results of a hamstring strain.

With Nicky Cadden still out, Josh Campbell joining the injured list, Miguel Chaiwa unavailable, Rocky Bushiri still on AFCON duty and Jordan Obita only fresh enough for a place on the bench, it was nowhere near the strongest starting line-up Hibs have fielded this season. To lose both Kanayo Megwa and Jack Iredale to injury during the game hardly helped.

Yet they found a way. Brought their ability to bear on the contest. And maybe, just maybe, manage to set off a couple of warning whistles among the teams immediately ahead of them in this barmy scramble for position at the business end of the table.

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