Hibs in for a proper ruck at Rugby Park - Tactics Zone Special on Killie clash as Gray's men chase Euro spot

Without wanting to put anyone off, and with no disrespect intended, anyone paying good money to watch Kilmarnock v Hibs at Rugby Park this afternoon should temper their expectations according to circumstances. While the up and at ‘em approach of both teams is likely to produce drama and entertainment, total football may be in short supply.

That’s no slur on Killie, their artificial pitch or a manager who is undoubtedly one of the smartest operators working in Scottish football at the moment. But Derek McInnes has his team doing what they need to do, with minimal whistling and very little ringing of bells, as the Ayrshire side look to claw their way into the top six ahead of the Scottish Premiership split.

Without Kyle Vassell and Stuart Findlay, both expected back after the international break, Kilmarnock are lacking leadership and quality at both ends of the park. But can David Gray’s men, currently in hot pursuit of European qualification, take advantage? And will they be left cursing the quality of a former Hibs prospect?

Shaping up

Killie are a flexible enough team, capable of switching from a standard and effective 4-4-2 into a 3-5-2 or even 3-4-1-2 when required. See Photo 1 for the most used options under McInnes this season.

Photo 1 - Kilmarnock shapes | Wyscout

Going direct when it’s on, they have been suffering the sort of infuriating defeats – leaving them six points off sixth AND six clear of bottom side St Johnstone – that make coaches go mad. Set pieces, crosses, all the unglamorous stuff that makes up such a big part of the game; Nectar Triantis scored in the only goal the last time these sides met, at Easter Road back in December, from a corner kick.

Winger must be watched

Ex-Hibee Fraser Murray is a key source of chances for the home side, with his pace and trickery on the left flank causing on end of problems. They’ll look to get him one-on-one with a defender and, as Photo 2 shows, hope that Hibs are slack as Rangers were in providing cover here.

Photo 2 - Fraser Murray is a wide threat | Wyscout

The 25-year-old is always searching for a way to hurt teams – and punish them for leaving any gaps. In transition, as Photo 3 shows, he’s quick to find space; this led to a good chance for Killie in the madcap 4-2 home loss to Rangers.

Photo 3 - Murray looking for danger areas | Wyscout

Derek McInnes pays attention to detail

Without the ball, Kilmarnock vary their plan. As you’d expect from a McInnes side, their attention to detail – spacing between the lines, players knowing which gaps to fill etc – is excellent (see photo 4).

Photo 4 - Killie shape | Wyscout

They will go all-out to press at times (see photo 5), although it’s difficult to see them pulling that off against Hibs.

Photo 5 - putting the squeeze on from the front | Wyscout

And, under pressure, they’re great at packing the lines (see photo 6).

Photo 6 - Killie’s organised low block | Wyscout

Set piece goals conceded

The good news for Hibs is that you could fill an entire highlight reel with the 13 goals Kilmarnock have conceded from set-piece situations. And that’s just in their 29 league games to date.

In open play, they are susceptible to a quick ball over the top. If you look at Photo 7, you’ll see how their inability to get pressure on the player in possession is accompanied by the central defenders not dropping to deal with the delivery – a terrible combination.

Photo 7 - open to ball over the top | Wyscout

In and around the edge of the box, too, they’ve missed the iron discipline and positional sense of Findlay. All very encouraging.

With the pace to stretch Kilmarnock and quality deliveries from both flanks, assuming Jordan Obita is match sharp as he starts in place of the injured Nicky Cadden, there should be chances for Hibs. Maybe even some entertainment? Hope springs eternal – even if most travelling fans would accept a scrappy 1-0 win that keeps the Easter Road side in third place heading into the closing pre-split stretch.

Your next Hibs read: Gray’s men go from hunters to hunted in race for Europe