Hibs rivals facing 'unthinkable' relegation play-off fate - Aberdeen in focus ahead of Pittodrie clash
Final pre-split fixture gives Hibs chance to keep pressure on Motherwell in Euro race
Unthinkable, possibly. Unpalatable for Aberdeen supporters of all ages – but especially those old enough to remember when Europe’s finest clubs trembled and quaked at the mere mention of the mighty Dons.
As Hibs travel to Pittodrie on Saturday, however, David Gray’s men will find themselves right at the heart of a storyline that, even in this season of madcap twists and credulity scrambling shocks, merits close attention. Because this Aberdeen side are in serious danger of dropping into the relegation play-offs for the first time in over three decades.
How did they get here? And are they really that bad? As they seek to avoid the same fate as the season 1994-95-era Dons, who eventually retained their top-flight status at the expense of promotion-chasing Dunfermline, they’re certainly piling up some horrific numbers.
A tale of three gaffers (eventually)
Jimmy Thelin was sacked on January 4, his 18-month reign brought to an end despite his achievement in winning the Scottish Cup eight months earlier presumably providing some degree of protection in the annual sack race. A five-game winless run did for the Swede, who left behind a team short on firepower and, seemingly, basic ambition to get forward and hurt teams.
In stepped Peter Leven on a caretaker basis. He would be in situ for over three months as Aberdeen hummed, hawed, reflected and reviewed their options, seemingly identifying and targeting at least one prime target who would need to wait until the end of the season.
The Pittodrie club were deep in talks with Erik Horneland. Then seemed to switch focus to Sandro Schwarz. Before popping down to Paisley to do a deal for Stephen Robinson (pictured), who would have been available – and willing to move – from within about an hour of Thelin’s dismissal.
No way to build a winning team
Perhaps inevitably, Aberdeen have struggled to build any momentum under their three different gaffers. And it hasn’t really improved much under Robinson, although the Irishman has only been at the helm for three games.
The Dons haven’t won a league game since January 24, when they scudded Livingston 6-2. They’ve suffered seven defeats and picked up just two draws in their nine Scottish Premiership fixtures since that fluke of a triumph.
They’ve lost twice as many league games as they’ve lost – 16 to 8, if you’re keeping score. Which is why they’re just three points clear of second-bottom Kilmarnock.
Underlying numbers reveal home truths
The metrics don’t often paint a misleading picture. And the fact that Aberdeen sit 11th in goals scored per match, averaging just one a game (Hibs are fourth with 1.6), tells us plenty about their issues.
When it comes to what the stats experts at FotMob call big chances created, the Dons are ranked ninth with 58. Hibs, for comparison, have carved out 74 big chances in the same number of fixtures – and even they’re only fifth in the table, by this measure.
Defensively, Aberdeen have been shipping goals at a rate of 1.6 per game (Hibs are fourth at 1.1 goals conceded per match), and they’ve managed to record just seven clean sheets to the 11 achieved by Gray’s men. The Granite City outfit are also dead last in set piece goals conceded, with 18.
The only area where they come out on top, sort of? Discipline. They’ve bagged more red and yellow cards (five and 82 respectively) than any other side in Scotland’s top flight, as well as committing more fouls per match than any of their 11 rivals.
The story so far
Hibs have triumphed in both encounters with Aberdeen so far this season, running out 2-1 winners at Pittodrie back in October and then cruising to a 2-0 win at Easter Road in that odd no-man’s land between Christmas and New Year. To put those games in perspective, the goal scorers for Hibs were Thibault Klidje (with one in each game), Junior Hoilett and Elie Youan.
So that’s two players who aren’t at Hibs any more, with club record signing Klidje on loan at Randers and Hoilett chasing a World Cup spot via a move to Swindon Town, while Youan is as close to the exit door as any member of the first-team squad. With a revitalised strike force boasting the in-form scoring touch of Owen Elding and Ante Suto, as well as the veteran guile of Martin Boyle, you’d have to fancy Hibs to do some damage this weekend.
This being football, and the current campaign having been typified by ridiculous developments on an almost weekly basis, it’s dangerous to make too many assumptions. And you’d have to expect Robinson to make a difference, in time.
But Saturday’s long journey to the north east shouldn’t hold any fears for Hibs, who have a genuine chance of enhancing their own European hopes. While pushing Aberdeen towards an increasingly possible close encounter with relegation.