How Hibs can cope without suspended Élie Youan against Motherwell - tactics, personnel, game plan

When Élie Youan was harshly and controversially dismissed midway through the first half of Hibs’ 3-1 defeat by Celtic following his second bookable offence at Parkhead, thoughts may not have immediately been on who would step into his boots for this Saturday’s home match against Motherwell.
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The French forward has been in an irrepressible vein of form since Christmas Eve with five goals and three assists in 12 games, but it’s not just his goal contributions that mark him out as a key player for Hibs, it is the unpredictable nature of the on-loan St. Gallen man – is he going to surge towards goal, or dance down the touchline? Will he shoot, feint, pass, or cross? His versatility in being able to operate off the left, and sometimes the right, as well as through the middle shapes him as a priceless attacking threat, one with whom Hibs will have to do without come the weekend.

With Aiden McGeady sidelined for the foreseeable, Youan’s suspension presents manager Lee Johnson with more than one conundrum. If he maintains the broadly successful 4231 formation that has served Hibs well in recent weeks, he needs someone to play off the left, and someone to lead the line. If he reverts to a front two, he will need to pick a pair from Matthew Hoppe, Mykola Kukharevych, Harry McKirdy, and Kevin Nisbet. If he goes with a front three as he did last time out against Motherwell, he needs the correct combination of midfielders and attackers. For once he has options, rather than a lengthy list of casualties. But the blend needs to be right.

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The vast majority of Johnson’s league wins as Hibs boss have come while playing a back four and there would appear to be no obvious reason for him to make such significant changes to his set-up. There were bright spots during the Celtic defeat in which he opted for a 532 but such a formation would make no sense at home and certainly not with Hibs hoping to finish as high up the table as possible in the race for European football.

Hibs talisman Élie Youan will be a spectator for Saturday's visit of MotherwellHibs talisman Élie Youan will be a spectator for Saturday's visit of Motherwell
Hibs talisman Élie Youan will be a spectator for Saturday's visit of Motherwell

Stick with the 4231 to counter ‘Well’s 3412

Under new manager Stuart Kettlewell, Motherwell have mostly played a back three, reverting to a back five for their last match against Rangers. They are likely to continue the 3412 formation at the weekend, hoping to use wingbacks Max Johnston and James Furlong to great effect on the flanks (assuming they have both returned unscathed from international duty) while the Hibs defence will need to be alert to the combined threat of Kevin van Veen and either Jon Obika or Blair Spittal, the latter partnering the Dutchman against the Light Blues.

Assuming there are no tactical surprises from the Steelmen, Hibs will surely stick with the 4231 formation to counter their opponents. Two defensive midfielders (likely Jimmy Jeggo and CJ Egan-Riley) can help contain the midfield but the slight issue is the requirement for quick wingers. Hoppe and McKirdy have both operated as wide forwards but would they be able to do a job as wingers? Josh Campbell and Ewan Henderson have also filled wide roles but aren’t the quickest. Could Jair Tavares be a surprise inclusion? He may have played his way into contention after his Reserve League showing last week, and the fact he wasn’t involved in Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Motherwell in the same competition perhaps suggests involvement with the first-team squad on Saturday. So too McKirdy.

One of the weaknesses of the 3412 set-up is its susceptibility to counter-attacks, something Hibs have been particularly good at in recent weeks. But much of that has hinged on Youan’s sheer pace. Without him in the team, Hibs are slower; it may be a case of funnelling the ball forwards more quickly, and placing more emphasis on key passes.

Youan and Kevin Nisbet linked up well up top when both were fit and availableYouan and Kevin Nisbet linked up well up top when both were fit and available
Youan and Kevin Nisbet linked up well up top when both were fit and available
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Hoppe wide left, who plays wide right, Nisbet over Kukharevych?

When McGeady suffered his hamstring injury against Kilmarnock, Hoppe was the player called onto replace him and when the USMNT forward joined Hibs on the January transfer deadline day he was introduced as being able to play anywhere across the front three. So if he plays wide left in a 4231, that’s one position filled.

Henderson has recently filled the wide right role, while McKirdy has also played there. Campbell could also play there but will likely fill the ten position assuming Johnson goes with an attacking midfield trio. He will want his players to try to get in behind the ‘Well wingbacks but both players could arguably bring different but relevant skills to the role.

The last poser is who gets the nod as lone striker. Kukharevych and Nisbet came on against Livingston and Rangers, with the former netting in West Lothian, but neither got off the bench against Celtic. Nisbet scored a hat-trick during the last meeting between the teams, while Kukharevych played 70 minutes of Ukraine Under-21’s 3-2 friendly victory over Denmark on Friday, and came on for the last 13 minutes of their 3-1 defeat by Italy on Monday. Building in travel time and his return from a lengthy injury lay-off, perhaps he might be best used off the bench.

Mykola Kukharevych, right, Matthew Hoppe, middle, and Nisbet could all be involved against Motherwell - but who starts?Mykola Kukharevych, right, Matthew Hoppe, middle, and Nisbet could all be involved against Motherwell - but who starts?
Mykola Kukharevych, right, Matthew Hoppe, middle, and Nisbet could all be involved against Motherwell - but who starts?

In conclusion…

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If we are to assume that Johnson will use his starting XI from the 4-1 win at Livingston as a template, he may only need to make one or two changes – and continuity is something of which he hasn’t enjoyed much this season. Hoppe started that match up top but could move to the left wing, requiring Nisbet to come in for Youan and lead the line.

There might also be a decision to make on who is picked to nullify Johnson’s threat – Marijan Čabraja or Lewis Stevenson. Apart from that, even with Joe Newell returning to training this week, there doesn’t appear to be much need for wholesale changes – so long as Hibs can cope without Youan’s presence.

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