Scouting Hibs ace Kieron Bowie - the real cost of selling Old Firm target as inside track on future provided
Transfer news: Easter Road club assess interest levels at home and abroad - so what happens next?
A sufficiently impressive pile of cash would, of course, qualm quite a few of the concerns. Assuming David Gray was handed a large chunk of the incoming lolly for reinvestment – and given time to use this windfall wisely before Deadline Day brings an end to all of this fun.
Even among supporters who have voiced their frustration over inconsistencies, missed chances and other perceived failings, however, there needs to be an understanding of what any sale of Kieron Bowie would do to Hibs as a football team. Should any of this chatter become something more concrete, what sort of a hole would a Bowie departure leave behind?
Hibs place high price on prized asset
To sum up the situation, Hibs are definitely aware of interest in a player who cost them somewhere in the region of £600,000 when he arrived from Fulham at the start of last season. Clubs on the Continent, as well as in England and Scotland, are understood to have at least explored the possibility of a bid.
The Easter Road hierarchy fully expect this interest to intensify between now and the end of the January window on, naturally, February 2. But it’s been abundantly clear, in response to all and any inquiries, that Bowie won’t be moving for anything less than an absolute whopper of an offer – one that is simply impossible to refuse.
That is in part a reflection on how valuable he is to Hibs. But also a recognition that the Scotland striker has the sort of qualities that cost big money, in any market.
Consider this a sort of reverse scouting report, then, focused not on what any club gets when they sign a player much improved by his season-and-a-half at Hibs – but on what sort of deficit his departure might create.
Putting the ball in the net
Yes, OK. The sitter he missed against Dunfermline last weekend perhaps induces a bit of recency bias when it comes to judging Bowie’s prowess as a goal scorer.
But the fact remains that he’s his team’s top scorer this season, with eight goals in the Scottish Premiership – and one in the UEFA Conference League, to boot. For a guy who has worked hard, and been coached hard, on improving his ability to simply get into the right positions, that’s a decent return.
He’s fifth in the league in goals scored, three behind top-ranked Hearts striker Lawrence Shankland, whose numbers are bolstered by a couple of penalties. Impossible to ignore when recruitment departments start trawling through the most basic data in search of value.
The fact that Bowie also has three assists to his name in league games, placing him sixth in goal involvements across the entire top flight, is a bonus. No longer can he be classified as one of those centre forwards who does a lot of work without getting his reward.
Leading the line
Size is a skill. A point of debate, in coaching and talent ID circles, where the old adage about a good big ‘un beating a good small ‘un continues to provoke argument.
But any scouting report on Bowie would have to start by acknowledging that he’s a physical monster, in football terms. If that wouldn’t count without the skill to back it up, his ability to pin, bounce, hold off AND draw fouls from defenders – the numbers back up that latter point, if you want to check them out – makes the 23-year-old a crucial outlet as a line leader capable of holding the ball in, linking with team-mates, relieving pressure and launching counter-attacks.
Rather than focus on what he might add to, say, a Celtic or Rangers, consider what his absence would do to the Hibs attack. As well as they coped with his recent illness, a front pairing without Bowie – even on an off day – definitely lacks oomph and threat.
Attitude and application
Whether it’s influenced by the fact that he’s gone through two fairly serious injuries already, or it’s simply a reflection of his no-nonsense approach to life in general, Bowie has earned a reputation as a grafter. Gray can’t talk about the kid without enthusing about the forward’s work rate – and his willingness to be coached, not always a given among players hailed as future stars while still in school, as was the case with Bowie.
This attitude is reflected not just in the raw number surrounding Bowie’s performances, with the number of tackles he wins and turnovers he creates reflecting well on his efforts, but the evidence presented to anyone who watches Hibs regularly. He can have bad games. Really bad games. But this is a guy who will play on to the point of collapse, as he did while suffering from a recent sickness bug, rather than let his team down.
Buy, sell or hold on for dear life?
Every scouting report has to contain a recommendation. This twist on a standard recruitment form must follow those rules.
For buying clubs? As much as Hibs fans may not want to hear it, the word among plenty of talent ID experts out there is that they’d be recommending a move now. Before he gets priced out of their reach by, for instance, involvement in this summer’s World Cup.
As for any decision likely to be faced by sporting director Malky Mackay and, by extension, chairman/owner Ian Gordon, well, it will obviously all come down to the money. Logic tells us that any offer anywhere near the £6 million mark mentioned in some quarters would be too good to turn down.
But there’s a real cost, as economists put it, to losing such a valuable asset. The deal only makes sense if a lot of the money is reinvested – a given, you’d imagine, judging by Gordon’s track record of backing managers. And if there is a target out there capable of filling at least some of the gaps left by Bowie moving on.
Over to Garvan Stewart in the scouting department, then. Now, tell us about this Bailey Cadamarteri lad …