The four current most likely World Cup play-off semi final opponents for Scotland revealed
Steve Clarke’s side have guaranteed a play-off if they do not automatically qualify for next year’s finals in North America.
The latest round of international fixtures were far from pleasing for the Tartan Army in terms of performances but the most important thing is that Scotland have guaranteed a World Cup qualifying play-off at the very least.
Their wins over Greece and Belarus at Hampden, plus the Greeks losing to Denmark, means they cannot be caught in second place in their group. Steve Clarke’s side can still top the group and book their spot in next year’s finals automatically but, if they don’t, they will be headed for the semi-finals of the play-offs in March.
Supporters are eager to get some sort of grasp on how those matches work and who they are likely to face and, thanks to data gathered by the Football Meets Data platform, that information is a bit clearer. Here are Scotland’s current most likely play-off semi final opponents:
The four nations Scotland are most likely to meet in World Cup qualifying play-offs if they fail to win group
Of the 16 nations currently projected to be competing in the play-offs, Scotland are sitting in Pot 2 in this moment in time. That means they will face a team from Pot 3 at home in the semi finals of the play-offs.
As it stands, there are the four nations currently occupying Pot 3:
- Slovakia
- Romania
- Albania
- Kosovo
If they win that tie at Hampden Park then they will face the winners of the other semi final in their ‘section’ of the draw between a Pot 1 and Pot 4 team. The venue of that match is drawn rather than based on seedings so could be either home or away.
Scotland still have a chance of moving into Pot 1 by the time the draw for the seedings comes around but that would rely on positive results in their final two group stage matches away to Greece and at home to Denmark. A win in Athens and victory over the Danes at Hampden guarantees top spot for Scotland.
However, with Denmark due to face bottom side Belarus while the Scots are away to Greece they will be expected to pick up the three points in that match. That means, due to their superior goal difference, that Denmark would only need a draw at Hampden to top the group.
That scenario would be a bitter pill to swallow but it would give Scotland the best chance of securing a place as a Pot 1 team for the play-off draw which would be a silver lining. Doing so would eliminate any chance they have of coming up against heavyweights Italy in a potential final.
Here are the full current play-off pot predictions:
- Pot 1 = Italy, Turkey, Ukraine and Poland
- Pot 2 = Wales, Scotland, Hungary and Czechia
- Pot 3 = Slovakia, Hungary, Albania, Kosovo
- Pot 4 = Sweden, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland and Moldova
When are the World Cup play-offs due to take place?
The play-off semi finals are currently due to take place on Thursday, March 26 (2026). The finals are due to take place five days late on Tuesday, March 31.
Scotland will discover if they are due to compete in the play-offs after the conclusion of their group stage matches against Greece and Denmark in November. If they are, the draw for the play-offs is currently scheduled to take place in November, shortly after those fixtures.