Greece and Denmark games will determine fate ahead of USA, Canada and Mexico

Scotland fully intend to avoid a World Cup play-off next year by earning a draw in Greece and beating Denmark over the next few days. Those results would secure top spot in Group C and an automatic place at next summer’s finals in USA, Canada and Mexico. The play-off is a safety net if required but carries the usual nervousness of knockout football to reach a major tournament.

Only group winners gain direct entry to the 2026 World Cup. Greece are already eliminated so Scotland need to better Denmark’s final points total to finish first in the section. Should they fail, the play-offs next March could see them drawn against opponents of varying pedigree with a one-legged semi-final and final to be navigated.

The play-off draw is scheduled to take place on 22 November, when the 12 runners-up from each World Cup qualifying group will join four countries from the Nations League. The runners-up will be split into three pots based on their FIFA World Ranking, with the Nations League teams in a fourth pot.

Semi-finals are due on 26 March, with the final five days later on 31 March. Scotland would be likely to find themselves in Pot 2 as things stand, resulting in a ‘home’ semi-final at Hampden Park against a nation from Pot 3. Albania, Czechia, Kosovo, Slovakia, North Macedonia, Poland and Bosnia and Herzegovina would be the potential opponents based on current positions and rankings.

As for the final, should Scotland get there, they could find themselves against countries like Turkey, Ukraine, Wales or potentially Italy. The home team will be determined at the time of the draw. Possible opponents can change over the next few days depending on results, but there is no doubt that the play-off scenario is one Scotland national coach Steve Clarke would rather avoid.

The draw for the World Cup finals will take place in Washington DC on 5 December. That means nations involved in the play-offs will know who they will play should they reach the finals. Four UEFA play-off winners and two countries from the inter-continental play-offs will join the 42 other sides for a 48-team World Cup from 11 June to 19 July, 2026.

Clarke admitted the next few days will be defining for the Scottish squad. “Any time you get to the later stages of a campaign and you're in with a realistic shout of qualifying, that anticipation and that excitement has got to be there,” the head coach told BBC Scotland. “If it's not there, the players wouldn't be here. If it's not there for me, I wouldn't be here. I'd be playing golf somewhere or doing a bit of fishing and just relaxing.”

Most of Scotland’s squad were either not born or are too young to remember their country’s last World Cup appearance in 1998. “We're talking about a lot of players here who have never seen their country at a men's World Cup,” said Clarke. “So for them, what a chance to become instantly written into the history books of Scotland. That's what's there, the chance is there to do it.

“I've been fortunate enough to see Scotland a few times at a World Cup. It's a great occasion. We'd love to go to the USA, Mexico or Canada. We're the guys that can make it happen and that's what we aim to do. We know we've got two really tough games, but we're going to give it everything we've got to try and make sure that we're the team that's going across the ocean.”