What Scotland need to qualify out Nations League: Every permutation vs Poland and how it impacts World Cup

Victory over Croatia has opened up a world of possibilities for Scotland in their crunch Nations League A Group 1 clash with Poland.

A John McGinn strike at Hampden on Friday has them teetering between relegation and glory in a section that also involves Portugal, who’ve cemented first place. Outside of that, this four-way group is open over who comes where.

So what are the permutations for Scotland? How do they qualify out of the group and how can they still be relegated back into Nations League B? Let us take you through it all...

Poland vs Scotland and Portugal vs Croatia permutations

Portugal are through having won four and drawn one. Scotland will rank in second place and reach Pot 1 for the World Cup qualifying draw if a win is secured vs Poland AND Portugal win against Croatia. That’s only if one of these THREE outcomes play out; Scotland win by two goals, Croatia lose by two or Scotland score three more than Croatia.

Scotland go into the relegation play-offs if they win but don’t overtake Croatia. Scotland are relegated if they do not win. Poland can’t reach the quarter-finals but if they avoid defeat against Scotland, they enter the League A/B relegation play-off. Otherwise, they are automatically relegated, so there’s still incentive in this one fo Poland.

How does this impact World Cup 2026 qualifying?

All eight Nations League quarter-finalists go into Pot 1 of the World Cup qualifying draw, which is finished off by the four countries with the best FIFA World Ranking. If you are in the top two of UNL League A, you get seeded and have a more favourable route to the World Cup in 2026. Scotland are Pot 3 currently but may jump to Pot 2 of the qualifying draw if they beat Poland on Monday but don’t finish in the top two.