Nearly 7000 Scottish culture jobs predicted to be lost in 2020

Scotland is facing the loss of nearly 7000 jobs in theatre, music, film, television, fashion and architecture amid warnings its creative industries could be the most seriously affected of any part of the UK.

The live music sector is expected to be one of the worst-hit creative industries in Scotland due to the long-lasting impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Picture: David Wilkinson

New research signalling a looming country-wide “cultural catastrophe” has predicted a possible £1.7 billion hit to the Scottish economy in 2020.

That would be nearly 40 per cent of the impact the collective creative industries had north of the border last year.

The research for the Creative Industries Federation, which predicts more than 406,000 job losses in the UK, said many sectors were expected to lose more than half their revenue and workforce this year.

The study, by Oxford Economics for the federation, has predicted a revenue drop of £74 billion and a GVA decline of £29 billion by the end of 2020.

Among the biggest factors are the closure of theatres, recording studios and concert venues, the soaring costs of filmmaking and accommodating social distancing measures in cinemas.

According to the Scottish Government's latest figures, the creative industries sector is made up of around 15,000 businesses employing more than 70,000 people, not including a large freelance workforce.

The CIF report states: "Relative to the size of the creative industries in 2019, Scotland is the hardest hit, with a projected 39 per cent drop in creative GVA in 2020.

"Scottish respondents were the most pessimistic about the 2020 outlook."

Iain Munro, Creative Scotland’s chief executive, said: “The findings reflect the stark and sobering reality of the devastating effects Covid-19 is having on our creative industries.

“They are a significant part of the UK’s and Scotland’s economies and employment. This research highlights the threat they face.

“Our absolute priority is to continue to do all we can to help support the sector through these unprecedented times working closely with the government and partner agencies to protect the future of our arts screen and creative industries, which are so vital to the wellbeing and prosperity of the country.”

The Oxford Economics research projects that the creative sector will be hit twice as hard as the wider economy in 2020, with the impact felt in all parts of the UK and the loss of one in five creative jobs.

The federation pointed out that the creative industries were in rude health before the pandemic, employing more than two million people and contributing £111.7 billion to the UK’s economy.

CIF chief executive Caroline Norbury said: "These are the industries of the future - highly innovative, resistant to automation and integral to our cultural identity. We're about to need them more than ever.

"Our creative industries have been one of the UK's biggest success stories but what today's report makes clear is that, without additional government support, we are heading for a cultural catastrophe.

"If nothing is done, thousands of world-leading creative businesses are set to close their doors, hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost and billions will be lost to our economy. The repercussions would have a devastating and irreversible effect on our country.”

UK Theatre chief executive Julian Bird said: "Covid-19 has removed the sector's trading income entirely at a stroke and thrown its business model into crisis.

"In order to rescue the performing arts sector, we call on Government to sustain the workforce, catalyse the recovery, and review insurance and liability policies to ensure this valuable asset is protected and enhanced for the future. We hope this report goes some way to helping this happen."

UK Music chief executive Tom Kiehl said: "Year after year, the UK music industry is a proven winner for our economy, job creation and exports, as well as positively impacting other sectors like tourism.

"Coronavirus has turned our world upside down, with catastrophic consequences across the industry and beyond.

"The music industry is resilient, but this means knowing when to ask for help. We need help to restart our economy, help to preserve jobs and help to maintain the UK's fundamental position as a net exporter of music across the rest of the world."

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